Recent forecast models from meteorological agencies indicate variable overnight radiative cooling in Istanbul, with partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds moderating temperatures near the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea, keeping the daily low most likely between 14–18°C. Historical September normals show average lows near 18°C that decline through the month, but urban heat island effects and potential scattered showers on September 16 introduce divergence in model outputs, as increased cloud cover or humidity can suppress cooling by 2–4°C compared to clear, calm conditions. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities for 14°C and 18°C captures this genuine uncertainty ahead of final observational data from official stations, with resolution hinging on the precise minimum recorded overnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月16日伊斯坦布尔的最低温度？
9月16日伊斯坦布尔的最低温度？
18°C 99.5%
17°C 15%
14°C 1.0%
15°C 1.0%
$707 交易量
$707 交易量
2026-09-16
13°C或以下
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
是
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C或更高
否
18°C 99.5%
17°C 15%
14°C 1.0%
15°C 1.0%
$707 交易量
$707 交易量
2026-09-16
13°C或以下
$133 交易量
否
14°C
$0 交易量
否
15°C
$0 交易量
否
16°C
$20 交易量
否
17°C
$77 交易量
否
18°C
$239 交易量
是
19°C
$104 交易量
否
20°C
$69 交易量
否
21°C
$22 交易量
否
22°C
$21 交易量
否
23°C或更高
$22 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from meteorological agencies indicate variable overnight radiative cooling in Istanbul, with partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds moderating temperatures near the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea, keeping the daily low most likely between 14–18°C. Historical September normals show average lows near 18°C that decline through the month, but urban heat island effects and potential scattered showers on September 16 introduce divergence in model outputs, as increased cloud cover or humidity can suppress cooling by 2–4°C compared to clear, calm conditions. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities for 14°C and 18°C captures this genuine uncertainty ahead of final observational data from official stations, with resolution hinging on the precise minimum recorded overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$707结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from meteorological agencies indicate variable overnight radiative cooling in Istanbul, with partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds moderating temperatures near the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea, keeping the daily low most likely between 14–18°C. Historical September normals show average lows near 18°C that decline through the month, but urban heat island effects and potential scattered showers on September 16 introduce divergence in model outputs, as increased cloud cover or humidity can suppress cooling by 2–4°C compared to clear, calm conditions. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities for 14°C and 18°C captures this genuine uncertainty ahead of final observational data from official stations, with resolution hinging on the precise minimum recorded overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$707结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Recent forecast models from meteorological agencies indicate variable overnight radiative cooling in Istanbul, with partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds moderating temperatures near the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea, keeping the daily low most likely between 14–18°C. Historical September normals show average lows near 18°C that decline through the month, but urban heat island effects and potential scattered showers on September 16 introduce divergence in model outputs, as increased cloud cover or humidity can suppress cooling by 2–4°C compared to clear, calm conditions. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched implied probabilities for 14°C and 18°C captures this genuine uncertainty ahead of final observational data from official stations, with resolution hinging on the precise minimum recorded overnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题