Recent model runs indicate a shift toward cooler Atlantic air and unsettled conditions across northern France, with cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southwesterly winds limiting overnight radiative cooling for Paris on August 28. These factors support minimum temperatures clustered around 16–17 °C as the most probable outcomes, consistent with the tight market spread between those levels. Stronger winds or persistent rain would suppress the low by mixing the boundary layer and reducing clear-sky cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings nearer 15 °C. Conversely, delayed frontal passage or lighter winds might keep the minimum closer to 18–19 °C. ECMWF and GFS updates over the next 48 hours will refine timing of any showers and wind strength, directly influencing which threshold resolves. Historical late-August averages near 13.6 °C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors above-normal minima.