Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Paris overnight lows on September 26 will likely settle near 14–16°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate northwest winds, and stable high pressure, favoring the market's leading 14°C outcome at 39% implied probability. Clear conditions overnight support radiative cooling, yet current guidance shows limited cold-air advection, keeping temperatures above the long-term September 26 average low of 10.6°C. Traders appear to weigh the risk of slightly stronger cooling or model revisions that could push readings to 13°C or the 10°C-or-below bin (combined ~42.5%), while warmer outcomes above 16°C remain low-probability given the consensus trajectory. Updated runs through September 24 show little change in steering patterns or moisture, leaving the market-implied distribution anchored to the narrow range around 14°C with modest downside skew from potential forecast adjustments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月26日巴黎最低气温？
9月26日巴黎最低气温？
10°C或更低 42%
14°C 37%
16°C 34%
11°C 30%
最新
最新
2026-09-26
10°C或更低
42%
11°C
30%
12°C
20%
13°C
25%
14°C
37%
15°C
18%
16°C
34%
17°C
30%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C或更高
1%
10°C或更低 42%
14°C 37%
16°C 34%
11°C 30%
最新
最新
2026-09-26
10°C或更低
$81 交易量
42%
11°C
$0 交易量
30%
12°C
$0 交易量
20%
13°C
$0 交易量
25%
14°C
$227 交易量
37%
15°C
$0 交易量
18%
16°C
$0 交易量
34%
17°C
$0 交易量
30%
18°C
$0 交易量
2%
19°C
$0 交易量
2%
20°C或更高
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Paris overnight lows on September 26 will likely settle near 14–16°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate northwest winds, and stable high pressure, favoring the market's leading 14°C outcome at 39% implied probability. Clear conditions overnight support radiative cooling, yet current guidance shows limited cold-air advection, keeping temperatures above the long-term September 26 average low of 10.6°C. Traders appear to weigh the risk of slightly stronger cooling or model revisions that could push readings to 13°C or the 10°C-or-below bin (combined ~42.5%), while warmer outcomes above 16°C remain low-probability given the consensus trajectory. Updated runs through September 24 show little change in steering patterns or moisture, leaving the market-implied distribution anchored to the narrow range around 14°C with modest downside skew from potential forecast adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$308结束日期
2026-09-26市场开放时间
Sep 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Paris overnight lows on September 26 will likely settle near 14–16°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate northwest winds, and stable high pressure, favoring the market's leading 14°C outcome at 39% implied probability. Clear conditions overnight support radiative cooling, yet current guidance shows limited cold-air advection, keeping temperatures above the long-term September 26 average low of 10.6°C. Traders appear to weigh the risk of slightly stronger cooling or model revisions that could push readings to 13°C or the 10°C-or-below bin (combined ~42.5%), while warmer outcomes above 16°C remain low-probability given the consensus trajectory. Updated runs through September 24 show little change in steering patterns or moisture, leaving the market-implied distribution anchored to the narrow range around 14°C with modest downside skew from potential forecast adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$308结束日期
2026-09-26市场开放时间
Sep 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRecent forecasts from multiple models indicate Paris overnight lows on September 26 will likely settle near 14–16°C under partly cloudy skies, moderate northwest winds, and stable high pressure, favoring the market's leading 14°C outcome at 39% implied probability. Clear conditions overnight support radiative cooling, yet current guidance shows limited cold-air advection, keeping temperatures above the long-term September 26 average low of 10.6°C. Traders appear to weigh the risk of slightly stronger cooling or model revisions that could push readings to 13°C or the 10°C-or-below bin (combined ~42.5%), while warmer outcomes above 16°C remain low-probability given the consensus trajectory. Updated runs through September 24 show little change in steering patterns or moisture, leaving the market-implied distribution anchored to the narrow range around 14°C with modest downside skew from potential forecast adjustments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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