Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, 2026, reaching exactly 15°C, driven by convergence across short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project a pre-dawn minimum of 15°C under clear skies, light south-southeasterly winds, and moderating East China Sea influence. Recent observations confirm May 3–4 lows near 13–14°C amid overcast conditions, with transitioning high-pressure patterns now favoring radiative cooling to precisely 15°C, aligning with early-May climatological norms of 15.5°C amid a mild cool anomaly. Realistic challenges include unexpected evening cloud cover trapping heat above 15°C or gusty winds advecting cooler air below, though model agreement yields high confidence; official Xujiahui station data will resolve by midnight UTC.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 5?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 5?
15°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$28,340 交易量
$28,340 交易量
2026-05-05
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$28,340 交易量
$28,340 交易量
2026-05-05
11°C or below
$5,135 交易量
No
12°C
$5,849 交易量
No
13°C
$2,942 交易量
No
14°C
$5,017 交易量
No
15°C
$4,040 交易量
Yes
16°C
$1,925 交易量
No
17°C
$515 交易量
No
18°C
$526 交易量
No
19°C
$688 交易量
No
20°C
$860 交易量
No
21°C or higher
$844 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, 2026, reaching exactly 15°C, driven by convergence across short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project a pre-dawn minimum of 15°C under clear skies, light south-southeasterly winds, and moderating East China Sea influence. Recent observations confirm May 3–4 lows near 13–14°C amid overcast conditions, with transitioning high-pressure patterns now favoring radiative cooling to precisely 15°C, aligning with early-May climatological norms of 15.5°C amid a mild cool anomaly. Realistic challenges include unexpected evening cloud cover trapping heat above 15°C or gusty winds advecting cooler air below, though model agreement yields high confidence; official Xujiahui station data will resolve by midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
交易量
$28,340结束日期
2026-05-05市场开放时间
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, 2026, reaching exactly 15°C, driven by convergence across short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project a pre-dawn minimum of 15°C under clear skies, light south-southeasterly winds, and moderating East China Sea influence. Recent observations confirm May 3–4 lows near 13–14°C amid overcast conditions, with transitioning high-pressure patterns now favoring radiative cooling to precisely 15°C, aligning with early-May climatological norms of 15.5°C amid a mild cool anomaly. Realistic challenges include unexpected evening cloud cover trapping heat above 15°C or gusty winds advecting cooler air below, though model agreement yields high confidence; official Xujiahui station data will resolve by midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$28,340结束日期
2026-05-05市场开放时间
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 5, 2026, reaching exactly 15°C, driven by convergence across short-range numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS, which project a pre-dawn minimum of 15°C under clear skies, light south-southeasterly winds, and moderating East China Sea influence. Recent observations confirm May 3–4 lows near 13–14°C amid overcast conditions, with transitioning high-pressure patterns now favoring radiative cooling to precisely 15°C, aligning with early-May climatological norms of 15.5°C amid a mild cool anomaly. Realistic challenges include unexpected evening cloud cover trapping heat above 15°C or gusty winds advecting cooler air below, though model agreement yields high confidence; official Xujiahui station data will resolve by midnight UTC.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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