Recent forecasts from multiple models, including JMA and international ensembles, indicate overnight lows in Tokyo on August 23 in the 23–26 °C range, with the tightest clustering around 24–25 °C. Persistent high humidity (often above 90 % near dawn), variable cloud cover, and light northeasterly winds are limiting radiative cooling, while any residual moisture or showers from the unsettled pattern on the 22nd can further moderate the minimum. Historical August baselines show typical overnight lows near 23–25 °C, but recent days have featured slightly elevated readings amid fluctuating pressure and moisture. Model consensus supports 24–25 °C as the most probable outcomes, which explains their combined 76 % market-implied probability; the modest spread between them reflects remaining uncertainty in exact timing of any clearing or light precipitation that could shift the low by 1 °C.