**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting numerical models has driven near-certain market-implied odds for a 22°C minimum in Tokyo on September 20.** Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and light northeasterly winds associated with a nearby frontal system have limited overnight radiational cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping to the 21°C threshold. Historical September climatology for central Tokyo shows typical lows around 18–20°C, but the current moist, stable air mass has elevated the floor. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of guidance around 21–22°C, with resolution hinging on official JMA observations at the Tokyo station. Clearer breaks or stronger northerly advection remain the primary variables that could still shift the final reading.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月20日东京气温最低？
9月20日东京气温最低？
22°C 99.5%
20°C 1.0%
21°C 1.0%
16°C或以下 <1%
$13,371 交易量
$13,371 交易量
2026-09-20
16°C或以下
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
是
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26℃或更高
否
22°C 99.5%
20°C 1.0%
21°C 1.0%
16°C或以下 <1%
$13,371 交易量
$13,371 交易量
2026-09-20
16°C或以下
$141 交易量
否
17°C
$93 交易量
否
18°C
$1,077 交易量
否
19°C
$660 交易量
否
20°C
$1,069 交易量
否
21°C
$1,990 交易量
否
22°C
$2,445 交易量
是
23°C
$5,792 交易量
否
24°C
$32 交易量
否
25°C
$32 交易量
否
26℃或更高
$41 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting numerical models has driven near-certain market-implied odds for a 22°C minimum in Tokyo on September 20.** Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and light northeasterly winds associated with a nearby frontal system have limited overnight radiational cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping to the 21°C threshold. Historical September climatology for central Tokyo shows typical lows around 18–20°C, but the current moist, stable air mass has elevated the floor. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of guidance around 21–22°C, with resolution hinging on official JMA observations at the Tokyo station. Clearer breaks or stronger northerly advection remain the primary variables that could still shift the final reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$13,371结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting numerical models has driven near-certain market-implied odds for a 22°C minimum in Tokyo on September 20.** Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and light northeasterly winds associated with a nearby frontal system have limited overnight radiational cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping to the 21°C threshold. Historical September climatology for central Tokyo shows typical lows around 18–20°C, but the current moist, stable air mass has elevated the floor. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of guidance around 21–22°C, with resolution hinging on official JMA observations at the Tokyo station. Clearer breaks or stronger northerly advection remain the primary variables that could still shift the final reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$13,371结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting numerical models has driven near-certain market-implied odds for a 22°C minimum in Tokyo on September 20.** Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and light northeasterly winds associated with a nearby frontal system have limited overnight radiational cooling, keeping temperatures from dropping to the 21°C threshold. Historical September climatology for central Tokyo shows typical lows around 18–20°C, but the current moist, stable air mass has elevated the floor. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of guidance around 21–22°C, with resolution hinging on official JMA observations at the Tokyo station. Clearer breaks or stronger northerly advection remain the primary variables that could still shift the final reading.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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