Recent forecasts from global models indicate Warsaw's August 28 minimum will likely fall in the 13–15 °C range, with trader-implied odds clustered tightly around 11–15 °C reflecting this narrow consensus. A strengthening high-pressure system over eastern Europe is promoting clear to partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly flow, allowing efficient nocturnal radiative cooling while limiting daytime mixing. Key variables differentiating the leading outcomes include minor model spread in boundary-layer wind speeds—stronger SE gusts could raise the overnight low by 1–2 °C through enhanced turbulent mixing—along with slight differences in cloud-cover timing that modulate longwave heat loss. Historical August minima average near 15 °C, so any late-model shift toward increased humidity or wind would favor the 14–15 °C contracts, while drier, calmer conditions would support the 11–12 °C side. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs tonight will likely resolve much of the remaining uncertainty before resolution.