Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor, holds the strongest position in the Makerfield by-election due to his national profile and the seat's 2024 Labour majority, though Reform UK's Robert Kenyon benefits from strong local support and a split anti-Labour vote among Conservatives, Restore Britain, and others. Recent polls show Burnham leading by 5–12 points among likely voters, with the race remaining competitive amid local priorities such as the cost of living and high streets. The final days of campaigning, including candidate debates and door-knocking by figures like Nigel Farage, have reinforced expectations of a Burnham win, with traders pricing in a margin exceeding 9% as the most probable outcome based on historical by-election turnout patterns and Labour's organisational edge in the constituency.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Burnham 9%+ 100.0%
Burnham 6-9% <1%
Burnham 3-6% <1%
Burnham <3% <1%
$66,396 交易量
$66,396 交易量
Burnham 9%+
Yes
Burnham 6-9%
No
Burnham 3-6%
No
Burnham <3%
No
Kenyon <3%
No
Kenyon 3-6%
No
Kenyon 6%+
No
Other
No
Burnham 9%+ 100.0%
Burnham 6-9% <1%
Burnham 3-6% <1%
Burnham <3% <1%
$66,396 交易量
$66,396 交易量
Burnham 9%+
$20,970 交易量
Yes
Burnham 6-9%
$10,485 交易量
No
Burnham 3-6%
$6,882 交易量
No
Burnham <3%
$7,435 交易量
No
Kenyon <3%
$5,825 交易量
No
Kenyon 3-6%
$3,463 交易量
No
Kenyon 6%+
$5,735 交易量
No
Other
$5,601 交易量
No
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor, holds the strongest position in the Makerfield by-election due to his national profile and the seat's 2024 Labour majority, though Reform UK's Robert Kenyon benefits from strong local support and a split anti-Labour vote among Conservatives, Restore Britain, and others. Recent polls show Burnham leading by 5–12 points among likely voters, with the race remaining competitive amid local priorities such as the cost of living and high streets. The final days of campaigning, including candidate debates and door-knocking by figures like Nigel Farage, have reinforced expectations of a Burnham win, with traders pricing in a margin exceeding 9% as the most probable outcome based on historical by-election turnout patterns and Labour's organisational edge in the constituency.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
交易量
$66,396市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor, holds the strongest position in the Makerfield by-election due to his national profile and the seat's 2024 Labour majority, though Reform UK's Robert Kenyon benefits from strong local support and a split anti-Labour vote among Conservatives, Restore Britain, and others. Recent polls show Burnham leading by 5–12 points among likely voters, with the race remaining competitive amid local priorities such as the cost of living and high streets. The final days of campaigning, including candidate debates and door-knocking by figures like Nigel Farage, have reinforced expectations of a Burnham win, with traders pricing in a margin exceeding 9% as the most probable outcome based on historical by-election turnout patterns and Labour's organisational edge in the constituency.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$66,396市场开放时间
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor, holds the strongest position in the Makerfield by-election due to his national profile and the seat's 2024 Labour majority, though Reform UK's Robert Kenyon benefits from strong local support and a split anti-Labour vote among Conservatives, Restore Britain, and others. Recent polls show Burnham leading by 5–12 points among likely voters, with the race remaining competitive amid local priorities such as the cost of living and high streets. The final days of campaigning, including candidate debates and door-knocking by figures like Nigel Farage, have reinforced expectations of a Burnham win, with traders pricing in a margin exceeding 9% as the most probable outcome based on historical by-election turnout patterns and Labour's organisational edge in the constituency.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题