Redistricting enacted by Missouri Republicans in 2025 and upheld by the state Supreme Court has shifted the 5th District boundaries to favor the Republican Party, transforming a longtime Democratic stronghold held by incumbent Emanuel Cleaver into a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. This map change serves as the central driver behind the current trader consensus of 57.5% for Republicans versus 30% for Democrats. Multiple Republican candidates have filed for the August 4 primary, while Cleaver remains the sole Democratic entrant. The November 3 general election outcome will hinge on primary results, fundraising, and turnout in the redrawn Kansas City-area district, with limited recent polling available to refine assessments ahead of the August contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
60%
民主党
30%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
$1,756 交易量
60%
民主党
$1,171 交易量
30%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting enacted by Missouri Republicans in 2025 and upheld by the state Supreme Court has shifted the 5th District boundaries to favor the Republican Party, transforming a longtime Democratic stronghold held by incumbent Emanuel Cleaver into a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. This map change serves as the central driver behind the current trader consensus of 57.5% for Republicans versus 30% for Democrats. Multiple Republican candidates have filed for the August 4 primary, while Cleaver remains the sole Democratic entrant. The November 3 general election outcome will hinge on primary results, fundraising, and turnout in the redrawn Kansas City-area district, with limited recent polling available to refine assessments ahead of the August contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
交易量
$2,928结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting enacted by Missouri Republicans in 2025 and upheld by the state Supreme Court has shifted the 5th District boundaries to favor the Republican Party, transforming a longtime Democratic stronghold held by incumbent Emanuel Cleaver into a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. This map change serves as the central driver behind the current trader consensus of 57.5% for Republicans versus 30% for Democrats. Multiple Republican candidates have filed for the August 4 primary, while Cleaver remains the sole Democratic entrant. The November 3 general election outcome will hinge on primary results, fundraising, and turnout in the redrawn Kansas City-area district, with limited recent polling available to refine assessments ahead of the August contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,928结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting enacted by Missouri Republicans in 2025 and upheld by the state Supreme Court has shifted the 5th District boundaries to favor the Republican Party, transforming a longtime Democratic stronghold held by incumbent Emanuel Cleaver into a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. This map change serves as the central driver behind the current trader consensus of 57.5% for Republicans versus 30% for Democrats. Multiple Republican candidates have filed for the August 4 primary, while Cleaver remains the sole Democratic entrant. The November 3 general election outcome will hinge on primary results, fundraising, and turnout in the redrawn Kansas City-area district, with limited recent polling available to refine assessments ahead of the August contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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