Meta's Muse Spark series from its Superintelligence Labs follows a consistent four-week release cadence for iterative gains in coding, agentic workflows, and multimodal reasoning, with version 1.3 shipping September 2 after 1.2 on August 5. This pattern, combined with CEO Mark Zuckerberg's recent tease of the larger "Watermelon" successor and pending open-weights availability, anchors trader expectations for Muse Spark 1.4+ in late October. Competitive pressure to match rivals' agentic benchmarks and developer feedback from the Meta Model API and Muse Code drive rapid iteration, while safety reviews and training compute scaling introduce timing variability. The closely matched probabilities around October 21–29 reflect uncertainty over exact internal milestones versus historical precedent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于10月29日 24%
10 月 21 日 24%
10月19日 23%
10月9日 15%
最新
最新
2026-10-01
在2026年10月1日或之前
15%
10月2日
13%
10月3日
13%
10月4日
13%
10月5日
13%
10 月 6 日
14%
10 月 7 日
14%
10月8日
14%
10月9日
15%
10 月 10 日
13%
10月11日
13%
10 月 12 日
14%
10月13日
9%
10月14日
14%
10月15日
15%
10月16日
13%
10月17日
10%
10月18日
8%
10月19日
23%
10月20日
8%
10 月 21 日
24%
10 月 22 日
14%
10 月 23 日
12%
10月24日
14%
10月25日
12%
10月26日
21%
10月27日
13%
10月28日
13%
10月29日
24%
10月30日
14%
10月31日
14%
截至10月31日没有发布
8%
10月29日 24%
10 月 21 日 24%
10月19日 23%
10月9日 15%
最新
最新
2026-10-01
在2026年10月1日或之前
$24 交易量
15%
10月2日
$24 交易量
13%
10月3日
$24 交易量
13%
10月4日
$24 交易量
13%
10月5日
$24 交易量
13%
10 月 6 日
$24 交易量
14%
10 月 7 日
$24 交易量
14%
10月8日
$24 交易量
14%
10月9日
$29 交易量
15%
10 月 10 日
$24 交易量
13%
10月11日
$24 交易量
13%
10 月 12 日
$24 交易量
14%
10月13日
$24 交易量
9%
10月14日
$24 交易量
14%
10月15日
$24 交易量
15%
10月16日
$24 交易量
13%
10月17日
$24 交易量
10%
10月18日
$24 交易量
8%
10月19日
$24 交易量
23%
10月20日
$24 交易量
8%
10 月 21 日
$24 交易量
24%
10 月 22 日
$24 交易量
14%
10 月 23 日
$24 交易量
12%
10月24日
$24 交易量
14%
10月25日
$24 交易量
12%
10月26日
$24 交易量
21%
10月27日
$24 交易量
13%
10月28日
$24 交易量
13%
10月29日
$24 交易量
24%
10月30日
$24 交易量
14%
10月31日
$32 交易量
14%
截至10月31日没有发布
$24 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Muse Spark series from its Superintelligence Labs follows a consistent four-week release cadence for iterative gains in coding, agentic workflows, and multimodal reasoning, with version 1.3 shipping September 2 after 1.2 on August 5. This pattern, combined with CEO Mark Zuckerberg's recent tease of the larger "Watermelon" successor and pending open-weights availability, anchors trader expectations for Muse Spark 1.4+ in late October. Competitive pressure to match rivals' agentic benchmarks and developer feedback from the Meta Model API and Muse Code drive rapid iteration, while safety reviews and training compute scaling introduce timing variability. The closely matched probabilities around October 21–29 reflect uncertainty over exact internal milestones versus historical precedent.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
交易量
$787结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Muse Spark series from its Superintelligence Labs follows a consistent four-week release cadence for iterative gains in coding, agentic workflows, and multimodal reasoning, with version 1.3 shipping September 2 after 1.2 on August 5. This pattern, combined with CEO Mark Zuckerberg's recent tease of the larger "Watermelon" successor and pending open-weights availability, anchors trader expectations for Muse Spark 1.4+ in late October. Competitive pressure to match rivals' agentic benchmarks and developer feedback from the Meta Model API and Muse Code drive rapid iteration, while safety reviews and training compute scaling introduce timing variability. The closely matched probabilities around October 21–29 reflect uncertainty over exact internal milestones versus historical precedent.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$787结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETMeta's Muse Spark series from its Superintelligence Labs follows a consistent four-week release cadence for iterative gains in coding, agentic workflows, and multimodal reasoning, with version 1.3 shipping September 2 after 1.2 on August 5. This pattern, combined with CEO Mark Zuckerberg's recent tease of the larger "Watermelon" successor and pending open-weights availability, anchors trader expectations for Muse Spark 1.4+ in late October. Competitive pressure to match rivals' agentic benchmarks and developer feedback from the Meta Model API and Muse Code drive rapid iteration, while safety reviews and training compute scaling introduce timing variability. The closely matched probabilities around October 21–29 reflect uncertainty over exact internal milestones versus historical precedent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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