Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district, a D+2 seat on Long Island’s South Shore that she flipped in 2024. She advanced unopposed through the June 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican Jeanine Driscoll secured her party’s nomination with over 90 percent in the primary. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts consistently classify the contest as Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Gillen’s incumbency advantage, the district’s partisan voting index, and limited recent polling shifts. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, trader pricing aligns with these fundamentals rather than signaling any late-breaking change in momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
87%
共和党
15%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$1,549 交易量
87%
共和党
$402 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district, a D+2 seat on Long Island’s South Shore that she flipped in 2024. She advanced unopposed through the June 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican Jeanine Driscoll secured her party’s nomination with over 90 percent in the primary. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts consistently classify the contest as Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Gillen’s incumbency advantage, the district’s partisan voting index, and limited recent polling shifts. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, trader pricing aligns with these fundamentals rather than signaling any late-breaking change in momentum.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$1,950结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district, a D+2 seat on Long Island’s South Shore that she flipped in 2024. She advanced unopposed through the June 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican Jeanine Driscoll secured her party’s nomination with over 90 percent in the primary. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts consistently classify the contest as Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Gillen’s incumbency advantage, the district’s partisan voting index, and limited recent polling shifts. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, trader pricing aligns with these fundamentals rather than signaling any late-breaking change in momentum.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,950结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district, a D+2 seat on Long Island’s South Shore that she flipped in 2024. She advanced unopposed through the June 2026 Democratic primary, while Republican Jeanine Driscoll secured her party’s nomination with over 90 percent in the primary. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts consistently classify the contest as Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Gillen’s incumbency advantage, the district’s partisan voting index, and limited recent polling shifts. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, trader pricing aligns with these fundamentals rather than signaling any late-breaking change in momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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