Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district, a Nassau County seat with a D+2 Partisan Voter Index that she flipped in 2024. The Democratic primary was canceled, allowing her to focus resources on the general election against Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, who secured her party’s nomination in June. Midterm dynamics and suburban voter trends favor the sitting member, while the Republican challenger contends with the district’s recent partisan shift and limited polling visibility at this stage. Prediction markets price the Democratic outcome at 86.5 percent, reflecting these structural and incumbency factors ahead of the November 3 contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
87%
共和党
15%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$1,549 交易量
87%
共和党
$402 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district, a Nassau County seat with a D+2 Partisan Voter Index that she flipped in 2024. The Democratic primary was canceled, allowing her to focus resources on the general election against Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, who secured her party’s nomination in June. Midterm dynamics and suburban voter trends favor the sitting member, while the Republican challenger contends with the district’s recent partisan shift and limited polling visibility at this stage. Prediction markets price the Democratic outcome at 86.5 percent, reflecting these structural and incumbency factors ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$1,950结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district, a Nassau County seat with a D+2 Partisan Voter Index that she flipped in 2024. The Democratic primary was canceled, allowing her to focus resources on the general election against Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, who secured her party’s nomination in June. Midterm dynamics and suburban voter trends favor the sitting member, while the Republican challenger contends with the district’s recent partisan shift and limited polling visibility at this stage. Prediction markets price the Democratic outcome at 86.5 percent, reflecting these structural and incumbency factors ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,950结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district, a Nassau County seat with a D+2 Partisan Voter Index that she flipped in 2024. The Democratic primary was canceled, allowing her to focus resources on the general election against Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, who secured her party’s nomination in June. Midterm dynamics and suburban voter trends favor the sitting member, while the Republican challenger contends with the district’s recent partisan shift and limited polling visibility at this stage. Prediction markets price the Democratic outcome at 86.5 percent, reflecting these structural and incumbency factors ahead of the November 3 contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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