**Incumbent Democrat George Latimer holds a commanding position in New York’s 16th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 95.5% consensus for the Democratic Party.** The district’s strong Democratic lean (Cook Political Report PVI D+18 and Solid D rating) underpins this outlook, reinforced by Latimer’s 2024 victory margin exceeding 70% and the cancellation of the June 23 Democratic primary, which left him unopposed. The Republican nominee, Joseph Cinquemani, faces structural headwinds with limited fundraising visibility and no recent polling suggesting a competitive path. Trader pricing aligns with historical base rates for safe Democratic seats and the absence of major catalysts such as scandals, redistricting shifts, or national wave conditions that could alter turnout among key voting blocs. Realistic challenges remain narrow and would require late-cycle events including a significant Republican national surge, an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, or developments that depress Democratic participation in this reliably blue suburban and urban district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$37,134 交易量
$37,134 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
4%
$37,134 交易量
$37,134 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$26,984 交易量
94%
共和党
$10,149 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat George Latimer holds a commanding position in New York’s 16th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 95.5% consensus for the Democratic Party.** The district’s strong Democratic lean (Cook Political Report PVI D+18 and Solid D rating) underpins this outlook, reinforced by Latimer’s 2024 victory margin exceeding 70% and the cancellation of the June 23 Democratic primary, which left him unopposed. The Republican nominee, Joseph Cinquemani, faces structural headwinds with limited fundraising visibility and no recent polling suggesting a competitive path. Trader pricing aligns with historical base rates for safe Democratic seats and the absence of major catalysts such as scandals, redistricting shifts, or national wave conditions that could alter turnout among key voting blocs. Realistic challenges remain narrow and would require late-cycle events including a significant Republican national surge, an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, or developments that depress Democratic participation in this reliably blue suburban and urban district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$37,134结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat George Latimer holds a commanding position in New York’s 16th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 95.5% consensus for the Democratic Party.** The district’s strong Democratic lean (Cook Political Report PVI D+18 and Solid D rating) underpins this outlook, reinforced by Latimer’s 2024 victory margin exceeding 70% and the cancellation of the June 23 Democratic primary, which left him unopposed. The Republican nominee, Joseph Cinquemani, faces structural headwinds with limited fundraising visibility and no recent polling suggesting a competitive path. Trader pricing aligns with historical base rates for safe Democratic seats and the absence of major catalysts such as scandals, redistricting shifts, or national wave conditions that could alter turnout among key voting blocs. Realistic challenges remain narrow and would require late-cycle events including a significant Republican national surge, an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, or developments that depress Democratic participation in this reliably blue suburban and urban district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$37,134结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democrat George Latimer holds a commanding position in New York’s 16th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 95.5% consensus for the Democratic Party.** The district’s strong Democratic lean (Cook Political Report PVI D+18 and Solid D rating) underpins this outlook, reinforced by Latimer’s 2024 victory margin exceeding 70% and the cancellation of the June 23 Democratic primary, which left him unopposed. The Republican nominee, Joseph Cinquemani, faces structural headwinds with limited fundraising visibility and no recent polling suggesting a competitive path. Trader pricing aligns with historical base rates for safe Democratic seats and the absence of major catalysts such as scandals, redistricting shifts, or national wave conditions that could alter turnout among key voting blocs. Realistic challenges remain narrow and would require late-cycle events including a significant Republican national surge, an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, or developments that depress Democratic participation in this reliably blue suburban and urban district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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