The NY-17 race features Republican incumbent Mike Lawler facing Democratic nominee Cait Conley in a Lower Hudson Valley district that supported Kamala Harris in 2024, establishing it as a prime Democratic target despite Lawler's 2024 re-election win. Trader consensus reflects this structural edge for Democrats, reinforced by Conley's West Point and national security background plus strong primary fundraising. Both candidates secured their party nominations in the June 23 primaries, clearing the field for a November 3 general election contest. Recent polling shows a tight race, with one July survey giving Lawler a slim 50-45 lead and another showing Conley ahead 51-45. Market pricing incorporates the district's swing dynamics, Lawler's incumbent status, and national midterm environment as key variables that could shift probabilities before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
67%
共和党
29%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
$4,001 交易量
67%
共和党
$4,893 交易量
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-17 race features Republican incumbent Mike Lawler facing Democratic nominee Cait Conley in a Lower Hudson Valley district that supported Kamala Harris in 2024, establishing it as a prime Democratic target despite Lawler's 2024 re-election win. Trader consensus reflects this structural edge for Democrats, reinforced by Conley's West Point and national security background plus strong primary fundraising. Both candidates secured their party nominations in the June 23 primaries, clearing the field for a November 3 general election contest. Recent polling shows a tight race, with one July survey giving Lawler a slim 50-45 lead and another showing Conley ahead 51-45. Market pricing incorporates the district's swing dynamics, Lawler's incumbent status, and national midterm environment as key variables that could shift probabilities before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$8,894结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-17 race features Republican incumbent Mike Lawler facing Democratic nominee Cait Conley in a Lower Hudson Valley district that supported Kamala Harris in 2024, establishing it as a prime Democratic target despite Lawler's 2024 re-election win. Trader consensus reflects this structural edge for Democrats, reinforced by Conley's West Point and national security background plus strong primary fundraising. Both candidates secured their party nominations in the June 23 primaries, clearing the field for a November 3 general election contest. Recent polling shows a tight race, with one July survey giving Lawler a slim 50-45 lead and another showing Conley ahead 51-45. Market pricing incorporates the district's swing dynamics, Lawler's incumbent status, and national midterm environment as key variables that could shift probabilities before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,894结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-17 race features Republican incumbent Mike Lawler facing Democratic nominee Cait Conley in a Lower Hudson Valley district that supported Kamala Harris in 2024, establishing it as a prime Democratic target despite Lawler's 2024 re-election win. Trader consensus reflects this structural edge for Democrats, reinforced by Conley's West Point and national security background plus strong primary fundraising. Both candidates secured their party nominations in the June 23 primaries, clearing the field for a November 3 general election contest. Recent polling shows a tight race, with one July survey giving Lawler a slim 50-45 lead and another showing Conley ahead 51-45. Market pricing incorporates the district's swing dynamics, Lawler's incumbent status, and national midterm environment as key variables that could shift probabilities before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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