With over 92% of actas counted by ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's presidential first-round vote at around 17%, setting up a runoff on June 7 against the second-place finisher, while a razor-thin contest for that spot—Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 12% versus Rafael López Aliaga at 11.9%, separated by under 12,000 votes—defines the third-place market. Traders reflect skin-in-the-game consensus pricing López Aliaga as the likely third at 63% implied probability, anticipating remaining rural actas, over 4,000 observed ballots under JEE review, and fraud claims from his camp could solidify or reverse Sánchez's late surge from Perú profundo votes that overtook Aliaga's early urban edge amid election delays. Jorge Nieto trails far behind at under 1%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 63.4%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺 36.3%
豪尔赫·涅托 <1%
里卡多·贝尔蒙特 <1%
$579,095 交易量
$579,095 交易量
2026-04-12
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加
63%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺
36%
豪尔赫·涅托
1%
里卡多·贝尔蒙特
<1%
基科·藤森
<1%
何塞·卢纳
<1%
菲奥雷拉·莫利内利
<1%
扬希·莱斯卡诺
<1%
沃尔夫冈·格罗佐
<1%
费尔南多·奥利韦拉
<1%
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯
<1%
阿方索·洛佩斯·查乌
<1%
乔治·福赛思
<1%
恩里克·巴尔德拉马
<1%
梅西亚斯·格瓦拉
<1%
塞萨尔·阿库尼亚
<1%
罗伯托·奇亚布拉
<1%
卡洛斯·埃斯帕
<1%
马里索尔·佩雷斯·特略
<1%
马里奥·比斯卡拉
<1%
弗拉基米尔·塞隆
<1%
何塞·威廉斯
<1%
拉斐尔·贝劳恩德·略萨
<1%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 63.4%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺 36.3%
豪尔赫·涅托 <1%
里卡多·贝尔蒙特 <1%
$579,095 交易量
$579,095 交易量
2026-04-12
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加
$125,410 交易量
63%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺
$101,677 交易量
36%
豪尔赫·涅托
$116,522 交易量
1%
里卡多·贝尔蒙特
$51,553 交易量
<1%
基科·藤森
$10,351 交易量
<1%
何塞·卢纳
$8,597 交易量
<1%
菲奥雷拉·莫利内利
$8,988 交易量
<1%
扬希·莱斯卡诺
$7,924 交易量
<1%
沃尔夫冈·格罗佐
$8,577 交易量
<1%
费尔南多·奥利韦拉
$9,843 交易量
<1%
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯
$14,605 交易量
<1%
阿方索·洛佩斯·查乌
$8,739 交易量
<1%
乔治·福赛思
$11,778 交易量
<1%
恩里克·巴尔德拉马
$8,981 交易量
<1%
梅西亚斯·格瓦拉
$8,550 交易量
<1%
塞萨尔·阿库尼亚
$8,178 交易量
<1%
罗伯托·奇亚布拉
$9,865 交易量
<1%
卡洛斯·埃斯帕
$11,161 交易量
<1%
马里索尔·佩雷斯·特略
$9,308 交易量
<1%
马里奥·比斯卡拉
$8,215 交易量
<1%
弗拉基米尔·塞隆
$8,555 交易量
<1%
何塞·威廉斯
$9,949 交易量
<1%
拉斐尔·贝劳恩德·略萨
$12,081 交易量
<1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)With over 92% of actas counted by ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's presidential first-round vote at around 17%, setting up a runoff on June 7 against the second-place finisher, while a razor-thin contest for that spot—Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 12% versus Rafael López Aliaga at 11.9%, separated by under 12,000 votes—defines the third-place market. Traders reflect skin-in-the-game consensus pricing López Aliaga as the likely third at 63% implied probability, anticipating remaining rural actas, over 4,000 observed ballots under JEE review, and fraud claims from his camp could solidify or reverse Sánchez's late surge from Perú profundo votes that overtook Aliaga's early urban edge amid election delays. Jorge Nieto trails far behind at under 1%.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
市场开放时间： Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
交易量
$579,095结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)With over 92% of actas counted by ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's presidential first-round vote at around 17%, setting up a runoff on June 7 against the second-place finisher, while a razor-thin contest for that spot—Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 12% versus Rafael López Aliaga at 11.9%, separated by under 12,000 votes—defines the third-place market. Traders reflect skin-in-the-game consensus pricing López Aliaga as the likely third at 63% implied probability, anticipating remaining rural actas, over 4,000 observed ballots under JEE review, and fraud claims from his camp could solidify or reverse Sánchez's late surge from Perú profundo votes that overtook Aliaga's early urban edge amid election delays. Jorge Nieto trails far behind at under 1%.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
交易量
$579,095结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 92% of actas counted by ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's presidential first-round vote at around 17%, setting up a runoff on June 7 against the second-place finisher, while a razor-thin contest for that spot—Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 12% versus Rafael López Aliaga at 11.9%, separated by under 12,000 votes—defines the third-place market. Traders reflect skin-in-the-game consensus pricing López Aliaga as the likely third at 63% implied probability, anticipating remaining rural actas, over 4,000 observed ballots under JEE review, and fraud claims from his camp could solidify or reverse Sánchez's late surge from Perú profundo votes that overtook Aliaga's early urban edge amid election delays. Jorge Nieto trails far behind at under 1%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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