Russia’s Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko’s federal list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 after a Rodina party challenge, with the appeal rejected on August 17. This prevents the liberal opposition party from competing in the proportional-representation segment, where it would need to exceed the 5 percent threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that bar since 1999 and recorded roughly 1 percent in 2021 amid documented administrative restrictions. The compressed timeline to voting leaves negligible scope for reversal, producing the 99 percent trader consensus on “No.” A late successful legal reversal or major postponement of the election remain the only realistic, though low-probability, paths that could reopen the outcome before September 20.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
1% 概率
$128,040 交易量
$128,040 交易量
2026-09-20
是
1% 概率
$128,040 交易量
$128,040 交易量
2026-09-20
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia’s Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko’s federal list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 after a Rodina party challenge, with the appeal rejected on August 17. This prevents the liberal opposition party from competing in the proportional-representation segment, where it would need to exceed the 5 percent threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that bar since 1999 and recorded roughly 1 percent in 2021 amid documented administrative restrictions. The compressed timeline to voting leaves negligible scope for reversal, producing the 99 percent trader consensus on “No.” A late successful legal reversal or major postponement of the election remain the only realistic, though low-probability, paths that could reopen the outcome before September 20.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
交易量
$128,040结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia’s Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko’s federal list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 after a Rodina party challenge, with the appeal rejected on August 17. This prevents the liberal opposition party from competing in the proportional-representation segment, where it would need to exceed the 5 percent threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that bar since 1999 and recorded roughly 1 percent in 2021 amid documented administrative restrictions. The compressed timeline to voting leaves negligible scope for reversal, producing the 99 percent trader consensus on “No.” A late successful legal reversal or major postponement of the election remain the only realistic, though low-probability, paths that could reopen the outcome before September 20.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
交易量
$128,040结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko’s federal list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 after a Rodina party challenge, with the appeal rejected on August 17. This prevents the liberal opposition party from competing in the proportional-representation segment, where it would need to exceed the 5 percent threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that bar since 1999 and recorded roughly 1 percent in 2021 amid documented administrative restrictions. The compressed timeline to voting leaves negligible scope for reversal, producing the 99 percent trader consensus on “No.” A late successful legal reversal or major postponement of the election remain the only realistic, though low-probability, paths that could reopen the outcome before September 20.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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