Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% probability for President Trump's approval rating falling in the 39.0–39.4% range per the Silver Bulletin polling average as of May 1, 2026, reflecting the aggregator's update to exactly 39.1% approve amid a net approval of -18.4%. This commanding position stems from new polls released over the past week— including RMG Research, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov—showing sharp drops driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, rising gas prices, cost-of-living pressures (net -41.5%), and the ongoing Iran conflict, pushing the average to a second-term low. While the figure aligns with RealClearPolitics' nearby 40.9% average, any post-release revision to Silver Bulletin data or polling error could theoretically challenge resolution, though such shifts are rare once finalized.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于39.0–39.4 100.0%
<38.0 <1%
38.0–38.4 <1%
38.5–38.9 <1%
$34,561 交易量
$34,561 交易量
2026-05-01
<38.0
No
38.0–38.4
No
38.5–38.9
No
39.0–39.4
Yes
39.5–39.9
No
40.0+
No
39.0–39.4 100.0%
<38.0 <1%
38.0–38.4 <1%
38.5–38.9 <1%
$34,561 交易量
$34,561 交易量
2026-05-01
<38.0
$3,118 交易量
No
38.0–38.4
$2,897 交易量
No
38.5–38.9
$4,183 交易量
No
39.0–39.4
$10,949 交易量
Yes
39.5–39.9
$6,975 交易量
No
40.0+
$6,438 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% probability for President Trump's approval rating falling in the 39.0–39.4% range per the Silver Bulletin polling average as of May 1, 2026, reflecting the aggregator's update to exactly 39.1% approve amid a net approval of -18.4%. This commanding position stems from new polls released over the past week— including RMG Research, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov—showing sharp drops driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, rising gas prices, cost-of-living pressures (net -41.5%), and the ongoing Iran conflict, pushing the average to a second-term low. While the figure aligns with RealClearPolitics' nearby 40.9% average, any post-release revision to Silver Bulletin data or polling error could theoretically challenge resolution, though such shifts are rare once finalized.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Apr 24, 2026, 11:19 AM ET
交易量
$34,561结束日期
2026-05-01市场开放时间
Apr 24, 2026, 11:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% probability for President Trump's approval rating falling in the 39.0–39.4% range per the Silver Bulletin polling average as of May 1, 2026, reflecting the aggregator's update to exactly 39.1% approve amid a net approval of -18.4%. This commanding position stems from new polls released over the past week— including RMG Research, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov—showing sharp drops driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, rising gas prices, cost-of-living pressures (net -41.5%), and the ongoing Iran conflict, pushing the average to a second-term low. While the figure aligns with RealClearPolitics' nearby 40.9% average, any post-release revision to Silver Bulletin data or polling error could theoretically challenge resolution, though such shifts are rare once finalized.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$34,561结束日期
2026-05-01市场开放时间
Apr 24, 2026, 11:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% probability for President Trump's approval rating falling in the 39.0–39.4% range per the Silver Bulletin polling average as of May 1, 2026, reflecting the aggregator's update to exactly 39.1% approve amid a net approval of -18.4%. This commanding position stems from new polls released over the past week— including RMG Research, Reuters/Ipsos, and Economist/YouGov—showing sharp drops driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, rising gas prices, cost-of-living pressures (net -41.5%), and the ongoing Iran conflict, pushing the average to a second-term low. While the figure aligns with RealClearPolitics' nearby 40.9% average, any post-release revision to Silver Bulletin data or polling error could theoretically challenge resolution, though such shifts are rare once finalized.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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