Polymarket traders view Simone Venturini as the frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Venice's mayoral election, reflecting March polls showing him leading the centrodestra coalition at around 36% in the first round as deputy to term-limited Mayor Luigi Brugnaro. Andrea Martella trails at 37.5% despite heading a broad centrosinistra alliance including PD and M5S, with head-to-head surveys pointing to a competitive ballottaggio. Recent coalition solidification, including Azione's late-March endorsement of Venturini, has bolstered his position amid stable polling, while minor candidates like Michele Boldrin (4.3%) draw limited support. Campaign exchanges on security intensified this week, but first-round voting on May 24-25 remains the key catalyst, with potential runoff June 1.