The fragmented probabilities in this market reflect Romania’s prolonged political crisis since the May 2026 no-confidence vote that ended the four-party Bolojan coalition. President Nicușor Dan’s September 18 nomination of Siegfried Mureșan to lead a PNL-USR-UDMR government has focused attention on that three-party formula, yet it falls short of the 233-vote majority and requires additional support amid PSD’s competing push for a “transparent majority” and refusal by some parties to back rivals. Recent polling shows AUR leading but isolated from mainstream partners, while UDMR has signaled unwillingness to join arrangements with far-right groups. The wide distribution across dozens of combinations captures ongoing negotiations, the caretaker status of the current minority administration, and constitutional risks of snap elections if two proposed governments are rejected within 60 days.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于PSD 12.8%
PSD + AUR 12.0%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 11.4%
PNL + USR 8.0%
$27,425 交易量
$27,425 交易量
2026-05-30
PSD
13%
PSD + AUR
8%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
11%
PNL + USR
6%
PSD + UDMR
7%
PNL + USR + UDMR
6%
PNL
6%
PSD + USR + UDMR
5%
PSD + PNL
4%
Other
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
3%
UDMR
2%
PSD + USR
2%
PNL + UDMR
2%
UDMR + AUR
2%
AUR
2%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
USR
1%
PNL + AUR
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
1%
USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + AUR
1%
USR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + AUR
1%
USR + UDMR
6%
PSD + PNL + USR
6%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
6%
PSD 12.8%
PSD + AUR 12.0%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 11.4%
PNL + USR 8.0%
$27,425 交易量
$27,425 交易量
2026-05-30
PSD
$433 交易量
13%
PSD + AUR
$521 交易量
8%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
$3,627 交易量
11%
PNL + USR
$317 交易量
6%
PSD + UDMR
$3,592 交易量
7%
PNL + USR + UDMR
$476 交易量
6%
PNL
$305 交易量
6%
PSD + USR + UDMR
$523 交易量
5%
PSD + PNL
$183 交易量
4%
Other
$3,978 交易量
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
$479 交易量
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$440 交易量
4%
PSD + PNL + AUR
$138 交易量
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
$538 交易量
3%
UDMR
$2,198 交易量
2%
PSD + USR
$549 交易量
2%
PNL + UDMR
$378 交易量
2%
UDMR + AUR
$686 交易量
2%
AUR
$738 交易量
2%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
$521 交易量
1%
USR
$1,741 交易量
1%
PNL + AUR
$482 交易量
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
$389 交易量
1%
USR + UDMR + AUR
$631 交易量
1%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
$418 交易量
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$392 交易量
1%
PNL + USR + AUR
$371 交易量
1%
USR + AUR
$717 交易量
1%
PSD + USR + AUR
$372 交易量
1%
USR + UDMR
$538 交易量
6%
PSD + PNL + USR
$285 交易量
6%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
$469 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.The fragmented probabilities in this market reflect Romania’s prolonged political crisis since the May 2026 no-confidence vote that ended the four-party Bolojan coalition. President Nicușor Dan’s September 18 nomination of Siegfried Mureșan to lead a PNL-USR-UDMR government has focused attention on that three-party formula, yet it falls short of the 233-vote majority and requires additional support amid PSD’s competing push for a “transparent majority” and refusal by some parties to back rivals. Recent polling shows AUR leading but isolated from mainstream partners, while UDMR has signaled unwillingness to join arrangements with far-right groups. The wide distribution across dozens of combinations captures ongoing negotiations, the caretaker status of the current minority administration, and constitutional risks of snap elections if two proposed governments are rejected within 60 days.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
市场开放时间： May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
交易量
$27,425结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETThis market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.The fragmented probabilities in this market reflect Romania’s prolonged political crisis since the May 2026 no-confidence vote that ended the four-party Bolojan coalition. President Nicușor Dan’s September 18 nomination of Siegfried Mureșan to lead a PNL-USR-UDMR government has focused attention on that three-party formula, yet it falls short of the 233-vote majority and requires additional support amid PSD’s competing push for a “transparent majority” and refusal by some parties to back rivals. Recent polling shows AUR leading but isolated from mainstream partners, while UDMR has signaled unwillingness to join arrangements with far-right groups. The wide distribution across dozens of combinations captures ongoing negotiations, the caretaker status of the current minority administration, and constitutional risks of snap elections if two proposed governments are rejected within 60 days.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
交易量
$27,425结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETThe fragmented probabilities in this market reflect Romania’s prolonged political crisis since the May 2026 no-confidence vote that ended the four-party Bolojan coalition. President Nicușor Dan’s September 18 nomination of Siegfried Mureșan to lead a PNL-USR-UDMR government has focused attention on that three-party formula, yet it falls short of the 233-vote majority and requires additional support amid PSD’s competing push for a “transparent majority” and refusal by some parties to back rivals. Recent polling shows AUR leading but isolated from mainstream partners, while UDMR has signaled unwillingness to join arrangements with far-right groups. The wide distribution across dozens of combinations captures ongoing negotiations, the caretaker status of the current minority administration, and constitutional risks of snap elections if two proposed governments are rejected within 60 days.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题