**The 91.3% implied probability for "No" on Alberta voting for independence in 2026 reflects low polling support for separation, constitutional and legal barriers, and the limited scope of the scheduled October 19 referendum.** Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced the province-wide vote in May 2026 following citizen petitions, but the key question asks voters only whether the government should begin the constitutional process toward a future binding referendum on separation—not whether Alberta should leave Canada outright. Recent surveys show roughly 18-20% backing for advancing that process, down from earlier 2026 levels, while direct support for independence hovers near 20%. Court rulings have already blocked several citizen initiatives over unaddressed Indigenous treaty rights, and any path to actual secession would require federal approval, interprovincial negotiations, and resolution of economic integration issues. Smith has publicly stated her preference to remain in Canada. These factors, combined with the October vote functioning more as a non-binding gauge of opinion on sovereignty within Confederation than a decisive independence ballot, underpin trader expectations that no qualifying independence referendum will pass by year-end.