Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5 election shows the Parti Québécois leading with roughly 29 percent support, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec at 24 percent and the Liberals at 22 percent, yet seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ in the low-to-mid 40s on average—well short of the 64 seats required for a majority. A fragmented field featuring five parties contesting ridings, combined with high undecided shares near 42 percent, has narrowed the PQ’s projected path. The CAQ has gained ground in recent surveys amid trade tensions with the United States, while the PQ’s sovereigntist platform, even with a referendum deferred past 2029, limits broader appeal. These dynamics underpin the market’s 75 percent probability that the PQ will not secure a majority.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于27% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-05
27% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-05
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5 election shows the Parti Québécois leading with roughly 29 percent support, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec at 24 percent and the Liberals at 22 percent, yet seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ in the low-to-mid 40s on average—well short of the 64 seats required for a majority. A fragmented field featuring five parties contesting ridings, combined with high undecided shares near 42 percent, has narrowed the PQ’s projected path. The CAQ has gained ground in recent surveys amid trade tensions with the United States, while the PQ’s sovereigntist platform, even with a referendum deferred past 2029, limits broader appeal. These dynamics underpin the market’s 75 percent probability that the PQ will not secure a majority.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
交易量
$814结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5 election shows the Parti Québécois leading with roughly 29 percent support, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec at 24 percent and the Liberals at 22 percent, yet seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ in the low-to-mid 40s on average—well short of the 64 seats required for a majority. A fragmented field featuring five parties contesting ridings, combined with high undecided shares near 42 percent, has narrowed the PQ’s projected path. The CAQ has gained ground in recent surveys amid trade tensions with the United States, while the PQ’s sovereigntist platform, even with a referendum deferred past 2029, limits broader appeal. These dynamics underpin the market’s 75 percent probability that the PQ will not secure a majority.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$814结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETRecent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5 election shows the Parti Québécois leading with roughly 29 percent support, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec at 24 percent and the Liberals at 22 percent, yet seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ in the low-to-mid 40s on average—well short of the 64 seats required for a majority. A fragmented field featuring five parties contesting ridings, combined with high undecided shares near 42 percent, has narrowed the PQ’s projected path. The CAQ has gained ground in recent surveys amid trade tensions with the United States, while the PQ’s sovereigntist platform, even with a referendum deferred past 2029, limits broader appeal. These dynamics underpin the market’s 75 percent probability that the PQ will not secure a majority.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题