No known near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact remain on collision courses for the rest of 2026, according to continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA orbital tracking. Historical flux data show events in this energy range occur roughly once every several years on average, with improved infrared and ground-based surveys having detected most small bolides well in advance. More than half of 2026 has elapsed without a qualifying strike, and recent close approaches—including multiple house- and bus-sized objects—passed at safe lunar distances. A documented uptick in fireballs this year involved only meter-scale or smaller objects that produced no significant energy release, reinforcing trader consensus that the market-implied odds for “No” accurately reflect both observational coverage and low baseline rates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
5kt Meteoriteneinschlag im Jahr 2026?
Ja
27% Chance
$311,616 Vol.
$311,616 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
27% Chance
$311,616 Vol.
$311,616 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact remain on collision courses for the rest of 2026, according to continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA orbital tracking. Historical flux data show events in this energy range occur roughly once every several years on average, with improved infrared and ground-based surveys having detected most small bolides well in advance. More than half of 2026 has elapsed without a qualifying strike, and recent close approaches—including multiple house- and bus-sized objects—passed at safe lunar distances. A documented uptick in fireballs this year involved only meter-scale or smaller objects that produced no significant energy release, reinforcing trader consensus that the market-implied odds for “No” accurately reflect both observational coverage and low baseline rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$311,616Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact remain on collision courses for the rest of 2026, according to continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA orbital tracking. Historical flux data show events in this energy range occur roughly once every several years on average, with improved infrared and ground-based surveys having detected most small bolides well in advance. More than half of 2026 has elapsed without a qualifying strike, and recent close approaches—including multiple house- and bus-sized objects—passed at safe lunar distances. A documented uptick in fireballs this year involved only meter-scale or smaller objects that produced no significant energy release, reinforcing trader consensus that the market-implied odds for “No” accurately reflect both observational coverage and low baseline rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$311,616Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 5-kiloton airburst or ground impact remain on collision courses for the rest of 2026, according to continuous NASA CNEOS and ESA orbital tracking. Historical flux data show events in this energy range occur roughly once every several years on average, with improved infrared and ground-based surveys having detected most small bolides well in advance. More than half of 2026 has elapsed without a qualifying strike, and recent close approaches—including multiple house- and bus-sized objects—passed at safe lunar distances. A documented uptick in fireballs this year involved only meter-scale or smaller objects that produced no significant energy release, reinforcing trader consensus that the market-implied odds for “No” accurately reflect both observational coverage and low baseline rates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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