Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Beijing high of 21°C (31.5%) or 22°C (26.5%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging on mild afternoon peaks amid a high-pressure ridge ushering southerly winds and clear skies. March historical averages hover around 14°C, but urban heat island effects in Beijing routinely add 2-3°C, amplified by recent solar insolation from reduced cloud cover. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences: ECMWF leans slightly cooler at 21°C due to projected late-day cirrus, while GFS implies 22-23°C with sustained heating; 23°C odds (19.5%) reflect upside risk from gusty föhn winds. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and Capital Airport observations will sharpen resolution amid typical spring variability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Beijing on March 27?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 27?
21°C 32%
22°C 27%
23°C 20%
20°C 13%
16°C or below
2%
17°C
1%
18°C
4%
19°C
9%
20°C
13%
21°C
27%
22°C
27%
23°C
20%
24°C
7%
25°C
2%
26°C or higher
2%
21°C 32%
22°C 27%
23°C 20%
20°C 13%
16°C or below
2%
17°C
1%
18°C
4%
19°C
9%
20°C
13%
21°C
27%
22°C
27%
23°C
20%
24°C
7%
25°C
2%
26°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Beijing high of 21°C (31.5%) or 22°C (26.5%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging on mild afternoon peaks amid a high-pressure ridge ushering southerly winds and clear skies. March historical averages hover around 14°C, but urban heat island effects in Beijing routinely add 2-3°C, amplified by recent solar insolation from reduced cloud cover. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences: ECMWF leans slightly cooler at 21°C due to projected late-day cirrus, while GFS implies 22-23°C with sustained heating; 23°C odds (19.5%) reflect upside risk from gusty föhn winds. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and Capital Airport observations will sharpen resolution amid typical spring variability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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