Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 17–20°C for Madrid's March 28 high temperature, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a mild 17–19°C peak amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia. AEMET's official outlook aligns at 18°C, bolstered by southerly winds advecting warmer air masses, with minimal cloud interference enhancing diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon wind shear—potentially capping at 17°C under northerly gusts or pushing to 20°C with sustained warmth—and Madrid's urban heat island effect, which historically adds 1–2°C. Climatological baselines (March avg. 16.5°C) and low precipitation odds (under 20%) underpin the 29.5% implied probability for 18°C as the consensus peak.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 28. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 28. März?
20°C 32%
21°C 32%
19°C 31%
18°C 29%
13°C oder darunter
2%
14°C
10%
15°C
12%
16°C
17%
17°C
25%
18°C
29%
19°C
22%
20°C
19%
21°C
17%
22°C
9%
23°C oder höher
2%
20°C 32%
21°C 32%
19°C 31%
18°C 29%
13°C oder darunter
2%
14°C
10%
15°C
12%
16°C
17%
17°C
25%
18°C
29%
19°C
22%
20°C
19%
21°C
17%
22°C
9%
23°C oder höher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 17–20°C for Madrid's March 28 high temperature, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a mild 17–19°C peak amid a building high-pressure ridge over Iberia. AEMET's official outlook aligns at 18°C, bolstered by southerly winds advecting warmer air masses, with minimal cloud interference enhancing diurnal heating. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon wind shear—potentially capping at 17°C under northerly gusts or pushing to 20°C with sustained warmth—and Madrid's urban heat island effect, which historically adds 1–2°C. Climatological baselines (March avg. 16.5°C) and low precipitation odds (under 20%) underpin the 29.5% implied probability for 18°C as the consensus peak.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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