Recent AEMET forecasts and ensemble model guidance position Madrid’s September 4 maximum near 38°C, with 39°C emerging as the market favorite due to the ongoing influx of warm, dry air from a southwest DANA and associated ridge. This setup has produced progressive warming across central Spain, elevating daytime highs several degrees above the 29°C seasonal average while keeping skies mostly clear and winds light. Official guidance lists 38°C for the capital on Friday, yet modest upward revisions remain possible if the warm advection strengthens or local urban heating effects intensify. Traders assign lower weight to 40°C+ outcomes given the short lead time and typical model spread for early-September conditions, while cooler results below 37°C appear unlikely under the current synoptic pattern. Updated AEMET briefings and next model runs will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 4. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 4. September?
39°C 56%
38°C 25%
40°C 15%
41°C 9%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
33°C oder niedriger
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
3%
36°C
4%
37°C
7%
38°C
25%
39°C
56%
40°C
15%
41°C
9%
42°C
1%
43°C oder höher
2%
39°C 56%
38°C 25%
40°C 15%
41°C 9%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
33°C oder niedriger
$0 Vol.
1%
34°C
$0 Vol.
1%
35°C
$0 Vol.
3%
36°C
$0 Vol.
4%
37°C
$0 Vol.
7%
38°C
$134 Vol.
25%
39°C
$78 Vol.
56%
40°C
$0 Vol.
15%
41°C
$0 Vol.
9%
42°C
$0 Vol.
1%
43°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET forecasts and ensemble model guidance position Madrid’s September 4 maximum near 38°C, with 39°C emerging as the market favorite due to the ongoing influx of warm, dry air from a southwest DANA and associated ridge. This setup has produced progressive warming across central Spain, elevating daytime highs several degrees above the 29°C seasonal average while keeping skies mostly clear and winds light. Official guidance lists 38°C for the capital on Friday, yet modest upward revisions remain possible if the warm advection strengthens or local urban heating effects intensify. Traders assign lower weight to 40°C+ outcomes given the short lead time and typical model spread for early-September conditions, while cooler results below 37°C appear unlikely under the current synoptic pattern. Updated AEMET briefings and next model runs will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$213Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET forecasts and ensemble model guidance position Madrid’s September 4 maximum near 38°C, with 39°C emerging as the market favorite due to the ongoing influx of warm, dry air from a southwest DANA and associated ridge. This setup has produced progressive warming across central Spain, elevating daytime highs several degrees above the 29°C seasonal average while keeping skies mostly clear and winds light. Official guidance lists 38°C for the capital on Friday, yet modest upward revisions remain possible if the warm advection strengthens or local urban heating effects intensify. Traders assign lower weight to 40°C+ outcomes given the short lead time and typical model spread for early-September conditions, while cooler results below 37°C appear unlikely under the current synoptic pattern. Updated AEMET briefings and next model runs will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$213Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET forecasts and ensemble model guidance position Madrid’s September 4 maximum near 38°C, with 39°C emerging as the market favorite due to the ongoing influx of warm, dry air from a southwest DANA and associated ridge. This setup has produced progressive warming across central Spain, elevating daytime highs several degrees above the 29°C seasonal average while keeping skies mostly clear and winds light. Official guidance lists 38°C for the capital on Friday, yet modest upward revisions remain possible if the warm advection strengthens or local urban heating effects intensify. Traders assign lower weight to 40°C+ outcomes given the short lead time and typical model spread for early-September conditions, while cooler results below 37°C appear unlikely under the current synoptic pattern. Updated AEMET briefings and next model runs will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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