Trader sentiment for San Francisco's highest temperature on March 26 centers on 68-73°F outcomes, driven by NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 69-72°F under a developing high-pressure ridge that limits marine stratus influence. The 70-71°F lead (27.5% implied probability) reflects GFS model runs showing optimal afternoon burn-off of coastal fog by 2 PM, maximizing solar heating at KSFO, while 68-69°F (22%) accounts for persistent low clouds in ECMWF variants. Slightly warmer 72-73°F (20%) odds hinge on stronger offshore flow clearing skies earlier, per recent updates; cooler bins lag due to March climatology averages of 63°F and low historical exceedance above 74°F without Santa Ana winds. Model spread underscores uncertainty in diurnal timing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in San Francisco on March 26?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 26?
70-71°F 28%
66-67°F 21%
72-73°F 21%
74°F or higher 16%
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
2%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
28%
72-73°F
19%
74°F or higher
16%
70-71°F 28%
66-67°F 21%
72-73°F 21%
74°F or higher 16%
55°F or below
1%
56-57°F
2%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
28%
72-73°F
19%
74°F or higher
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for San Francisco's highest temperature on March 26 centers on 68-73°F outcomes, driven by NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 69-72°F under a developing high-pressure ridge that limits marine stratus influence. The 70-71°F lead (27.5% implied probability) reflects GFS model runs showing optimal afternoon burn-off of coastal fog by 2 PM, maximizing solar heating at KSFO, while 68-69°F (22%) accounts for persistent low clouds in ECMWF variants. Slightly warmer 72-73°F (20%) odds hinge on stronger offshore flow clearing skies earlier, per recent updates; cooler bins lag due to March climatology averages of 63°F and low historical exceedance above 74°F without Santa Ana winds. Model spread underscores uncertainty in diurnal timing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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