Trader consensus tilts toward 30°C (31.5%) over 29°C (27.0%) for São Paulo's March 26 high, driven by ensemble weather models like GFS and ECMWF projecting afternoon peaks of 29-30°C amid partial cloud cover and moderating sea breezes from recent Atlantic fronts. INMET's official forecast caps at 29°C, aligning with Climatempo and AccuWeather estimates of 29-30°C, while urban heat island effects could nudge toward 30°C if morning lows around 22°C allow fuller solar insolation. Odds drop sharply for 31°C+ (20.5% total) due to high humidity curbing extreme heating, per historical March averages of 27-28°C max but with 1-2°C model spread introducing uncertainty ahead of final NWP updates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Sao Paulo am 26. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Sao Paulo am 26. März?
30°C 32%
29°C 27%
31°C 21%
32°C oder höher 9%
$77,131 Vol.
$77,131 Vol.
22°C oder niedriger
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
8%
29°C
27%
30°C
32%
31°C
21%
32°C oder höher
9%
30°C 32%
29°C 27%
31°C 21%
32°C oder höher 9%
$77,131 Vol.
$77,131 Vol.
22°C oder niedriger
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
8%
29°C
27%
30°C
32%
31°C
21%
32°C oder höher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tilts toward 30°C (31.5%) over 29°C (27.0%) for São Paulo's March 26 high, driven by ensemble weather models like GFS and ECMWF projecting afternoon peaks of 29-30°C amid partial cloud cover and moderating sea breezes from recent Atlantic fronts. INMET's official forecast caps at 29°C, aligning with Climatempo and AccuWeather estimates of 29-30°C, while urban heat island effects could nudge toward 30°C if morning lows around 22°C allow fuller solar insolation. Odds drop sharply for 31°C+ (20.5% total) due to high humidity curbing extreme heating, per historical March averages of 27-28°C max but with 1-2°C model spread introducing uncertainty ahead of final NWP updates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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