Recent model runs from sources including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a brief warm surge over central Poland, with Warsaw’s maximum temperature on August 16 most likely falling between 28 °C and 31 °C. A ridge of high pressure and southerly flow are expected to limit cloud cover and allow daytime heating above seasonal norms, while any increase in afternoon humidity or isolated showers could cap the peak. Ensemble spreads remain modest two days out, yet small shifts in the timing of frontal passage or boundary-layer moisture continue to differentiate the 28 °C, 29 °C, and 30 °C outcomes that together dominate market-implied probabilities. Final observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Warschau am 16. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Warschau am 16. August?
29°C 33%
28°C 30%
30°C 23%
31°C 8%
NEU
NEU
16. Aug. 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
5%
28°C
21%
29°C
33%
30°C
23%
31°C
8%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 33%
28°C 30%
30°C 23%
31°C 8%
NEU
NEU
16. Aug. 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
1%
26°C
$131 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
5%
28°C
$3 Vol.
21%
29°C
$73 Vol.
33%
30°C
$32 Vol.
23%
31°C
$73 Vol.
8%
32°C
$10 Vol.
3%
33°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from sources including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a brief warm surge over central Poland, with Warsaw’s maximum temperature on August 16 most likely falling between 28 °C and 31 °C. A ridge of high pressure and southerly flow are expected to limit cloud cover and allow daytime heating above seasonal norms, while any increase in afternoon humidity or isolated showers could cap the peak. Ensemble spreads remain modest two days out, yet small shifts in the timing of frontal passage or boundary-layer moisture continue to differentiate the 28 °C, 29 °C, and 30 °C outcomes that together dominate market-implied probabilities. Final observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$348Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from sources including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a brief warm surge over central Poland, with Warsaw’s maximum temperature on August 16 most likely falling between 28 °C and 31 °C. A ridge of high pressure and southerly flow are expected to limit cloud cover and allow daytime heating above seasonal norms, while any increase in afternoon humidity or isolated showers could cap the peak. Ensemble spreads remain modest two days out, yet small shifts in the timing of frontal passage or boundary-layer moisture continue to differentiate the 28 °C, 29 °C, and 30 °C outcomes that together dominate market-implied probabilities. Final observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$348Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from sources including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point to a brief warm surge over central Poland, with Warsaw’s maximum temperature on August 16 most likely falling between 28 °C and 31 °C. A ridge of high pressure and southerly flow are expected to limit cloud cover and allow daytime heating above seasonal norms, while any increase in afternoon humidity or isolated showers could cap the peak. Ensemble spreads remain modest two days out, yet small shifts in the timing of frontal passage or boundary-layer moisture continue to differentiate the 28 °C, 29 °C, and 30 °C outcomes that together dominate market-implied probabilities. Final observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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