Latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models have converged on a daytime high near 22°C in Wuhan on April 16, driving trader consensus with 22°C at 33% implied probability amid closely matched outcomes for 21°C and 23°C. This positioning reflects yesterday's updated runs accounting for lingering effects of April 13 showers, which increased cloud cover and soil moisture, tempering peak heating potential during mid-spring when climatological averages hover around 22°C. Model divergences stem from uncertainties in afternoon cloud breaks and light southerly winds aiding slight diurnal warming; 24°C gains traction in clearer scenarios, while 21°C or below favors persistent overcast. New 12z forecasts expected today and tomorrow from CMA could refine these odds before resolution via official Wuhan Tianhe Airport observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Wuhan on April 16?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 16?
22°C 36%
23°C 28%
21°C 23%
25°C 9%
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
7%
19°C
7%
20°C
7%
21°C
23%
22°C
36%
23°C
28%
24°C
8%
25°C
9%
26°C or higher
7%
22°C 36%
23°C 28%
21°C 23%
25°C 9%
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
7%
19°C
7%
20°C
7%
21°C
23%
22°C
36%
23°C
28%
24°C
8%
25°C
9%
26°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 14, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ECMWF, and GFS models have converged on a daytime high near 22°C in Wuhan on April 16, driving trader consensus with 22°C at 33% implied probability amid closely matched outcomes for 21°C and 23°C. This positioning reflects yesterday's updated runs accounting for lingering effects of April 13 showers, which increased cloud cover and soil moisture, tempering peak heating potential during mid-spring when climatological averages hover around 22°C. Model divergences stem from uncertainties in afternoon cloud breaks and light southerly winds aiding slight diurnal warming; 24°C gains traction in clearer scenarios, while 21°C or below favors persistent overcast. New 12z forecasts expected today and tomorrow from CMA could refine these odds before resolution via official Wuhan Tianhe Airport observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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