Trader consensus on Polymarket prices >9 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes at 46% implied probability, reflecting USGS historical global seismicity rates averaging 8–10 such events weekly along active plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire, where tectonic strain release dominates. Through April 16, USGS data logs three confirmed events—a M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 14 UTC, M5.5 in the Pagan region on April 13, and M5.5 off Tonga—aligning with baseline Poisson-distributed activity absent major swarms or aftershock sequences. With three days remaining to April 19 resolution, elevated totals remain favored amid inherent forecasting uncertainty from unreported shallow quakes or magnitude revisions; monitor USGS real-time catalog for shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Erdbeben vom 13. bis 19. April mit einer Stärke von 5,5 oder mehr?
Wie viele Erdbeben vom 13. bis 19. April mit einer Stärke von 5,5 oder mehr?
>9 45%
8 16%
9 15%
6 13.0%
$114,278 Vol.
$114,278 Vol.
≤3
<1%
4
1%
5
4%
6
25%
7
13%
8
16%
9
15%
>9
45%
>9 45%
8 16%
9 15%
6 13.0%
$114,278 Vol.
$114,278 Vol.
≤3
<1%
4
1%
5
4%
6
25%
7
13%
8
16%
9
15%
>9
45%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices >9 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes at 46% implied probability, reflecting USGS historical global seismicity rates averaging 8–10 such events weekly along active plate boundaries like the Ring of Fire, where tectonic strain release dominates. Through April 16, USGS data logs three confirmed events—a M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 14 UTC, M5.5 in the Pagan region on April 13, and M5.5 off Tonga—aligning with baseline Poisson-distributed activity absent major swarms or aftershock sequences. With three days remaining to April 19 resolution, elevated totals remain favored amid inherent forecasting uncertainty from unreported shallow quakes or magnitude revisions; monitor USGS real-time catalog for shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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