**Current forecasts for Warsaw on September 1, 2026, point to overnight lows of 15–17 °C under partly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and a modest chance of showers.** Multiple model runs and agency-style outlooks show daytime highs near 21–24 °C, with the daily minimum expected just before dawn as radiative cooling occurs under limited cloud cover. This places the most likely minimum in the 15–17 °C range, aligning with the market’s elevated probabilities for those specific outcomes. The near-even split between the broad “22 °C or higher” and “12 °C or below” bins reflects lingering model uncertainty typical this close to the date. Small shifts in the strength or timing of an approaching Atlantic front, changes in wind speed that enhance or suppress nocturnal mixing, or revisions to cloud-cover forecasts can easily move the minimum by 2–3 °C. Historical early-September climatology for Warsaw shows average minima near 12–13 °C, so current guidance is running somewhat above normal, yet still within the range where a single cooler night could push readings lower. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus forecast most heavily while keeping the tails open because resolution hinges on official observational data, which can differ slightly from model guidance depending on exact station reporting and measurement timing. With only one to two additional model cycles expected before the market settles, the tight clustering around 15–17 °C and balanced extremes capture both the central tendency and the realistic forecast spread.