Democratic nominee Shannon Taylor, the Henrico County commonwealth’s attorney, faces longtime Republican incumbent Rob Wittman in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+3 partisan voter index and Wittman’s consistent reelection margins, including a 13-point win in 2024, have historically favored Republicans, yet traders assign Democrats a 56.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects the typical midterm advantage for the party out of power, combined with Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s 2025 district victory that narrowed prior Republican edges in suburban Richmond and coastal areas. Wittman remains unopposed after the August 4 primaries, while Taylor consolidated Democratic support in a crowded primary; recent campaign activity centers on issues such as federal spending programs. Forecasters continue to rate the seat Lean or Likely Republican, but trader consensus incorporates the district’s evolving competitiveness and national midterm dynamics that could narrow or reverse historical margins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVA-01 Wahlsieger
VA-01 Wahlsieger
$23,497 Vol.
$23,497 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
57%
Republikanische Partei
42%
$23,497 Vol.
$23,497 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$19,247 Vol.
57%
Republikanische Partei
$4,249 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic nominee Shannon Taylor, the Henrico County commonwealth’s attorney, faces longtime Republican incumbent Rob Wittman in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+3 partisan voter index and Wittman’s consistent reelection margins, including a 13-point win in 2024, have historically favored Republicans, yet traders assign Democrats a 56.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects the typical midterm advantage for the party out of power, combined with Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s 2025 district victory that narrowed prior Republican edges in suburban Richmond and coastal areas. Wittman remains unopposed after the August 4 primaries, while Taylor consolidated Democratic support in a crowded primary; recent campaign activity centers on issues such as federal spending programs. Forecasters continue to rate the seat Lean or Likely Republican, but trader consensus incorporates the district’s evolving competitiveness and national midterm dynamics that could narrow or reverse historical margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volumen
$23,497Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic nominee Shannon Taylor, the Henrico County commonwealth’s attorney, faces longtime Republican incumbent Rob Wittman in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+3 partisan voter index and Wittman’s consistent reelection margins, including a 13-point win in 2024, have historically favored Republicans, yet traders assign Democrats a 56.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects the typical midterm advantage for the party out of power, combined with Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s 2025 district victory that narrowed prior Republican edges in suburban Richmond and coastal areas. Wittman remains unopposed after the August 4 primaries, while Taylor consolidated Democratic support in a crowded primary; recent campaign activity centers on issues such as federal spending programs. Forecasters continue to rate the seat Lean or Likely Republican, but trader consensus incorporates the district’s evolving competitiveness and national midterm dynamics that could narrow or reverse historical margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$23,497Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic nominee Shannon Taylor, the Henrico County commonwealth’s attorney, faces longtime Republican incumbent Rob Wittman in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+3 partisan voter index and Wittman’s consistent reelection margins, including a 13-point win in 2024, have historically favored Republicans, yet traders assign Democrats a 56.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects the typical midterm advantage for the party out of power, combined with Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s 2025 district victory that narrowed prior Republican edges in suburban Richmond and coastal areas. Wittman remains unopposed after the August 4 primaries, while Taylor consolidated Democratic support in a crowded primary; recent campaign activity centers on issues such as federal spending programs. Forecasters continue to rate the seat Lean or Likely Republican, but trader consensus incorporates the district’s evolving competitiveness and national midterm dynamics that could narrow or reverse historical margins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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