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icon for Wie stark wird Hurricane Polo sein?

Wie stark wird Hurricane Polo sein?

icon for Wie stark wird Hurricane Polo sein?

Wie stark wird Hurricane Polo sein?

Kategorie 5 34%

Kategorie 3 25%

Kategorie 2 14%

Kategorie 1 oder schwächer 13%

Polymarket
NEU

Kategorie 5 34%

Kategorie 3 25%

Kategorie 2 14%

Kategorie 1 oder schwächer 13%

Polymarket
NEU

Kategorie 1 oder schwächer

$0 Vol.

13%

Kategorie 2

$0 Vol.

14%

Kategorie 3

$0 Vol.

25%

Kategorie 4

$80 Vol.

42%

Kategorie 5

$0 Vol.

34%

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts and reconnaissance data show Hurricane Polo undergoing rapid intensification amid very warm sea surface temperatures, light vertical wind shear, and a moist environment off southwestern Mexico. Currently a Category 1 system at 85 mph, official guidance projects it reaching 145 knots (Category 4–5 range on the Saffir-Simpson scale) by midweek before gradual weakening, aligning with trader emphasis on Category 4 at 67% implied probability versus 32% for Category 5. Model consensus, including elevated SHIPS rapid intensification indices, supports this outlook, though interaction with nearby Tropical Storm Odalys introduces track and intensity uncertainty. Updated model runs and further aircraft observations through the week will refine peak intensity expectations ahead of potential coastal proximity.

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.

The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.

Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.

This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.

If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.

A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.
Volumen
$80
Enddatum
16. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.Recent National Hurricane Center forecasts and reconnaissance data show Hurricane Polo undergoing rapid intensification amid very warm sea surface temperatures, light vertical wind shear, and a moist environment off southwestern Mexico. Currently a Category 1 system at 85 mph, official guidance projects it reaching 145 knots (Category 4–5 range on the Saffir-Simpson scale) by midweek before gradual weakening, aligning with trader emphasis on Category 4 at 67% implied probability versus 32% for Category 5. Model consensus, including elevated SHIPS rapid intensification indices, supports this outlook, though interaction with nearby Tropical Storm Odalys introduces track and intensity uncertainty. Updated model runs and further aircraft observations through the week will refine peak intensity expectations ahead of potential coastal proximity.

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.

The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.

Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.

This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.

If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.

A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.
Volumen
$80
Enddatum
16. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie stark wird Hurricane Polo sein?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Kategorie 4" mit 42%, gefolgt von „Kategorie 5" mit 34%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 42¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 42% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Wie stark wird Hurricane Polo sein?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 21, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Wie stark wird Hurricane Polo sein?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie stark wird Hurricane Polo sein?" ist „Kategorie 4" mit 42%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 42% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Kategorie 5" mit 34%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Wie stark wird Hurricane Polo sein?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.