Elevated euro-area inflation, recently climbing to 3.2% amid energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, has driven the European Central Bank toward a more restrictive stance after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. Market pricing and economist surveys now assign near-certainty to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, reflecting resilient labor markets, firmer core readings, and staff projections that have shifted upward. This consensus underpins the 98.2% implied probability for a rate increase by year-end. A rapid de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
Sí
$129,050 Vol.
$129,050 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$129,050 Vol.
$129,050 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, recently climbing to 3.2% amid energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, has driven the European Central Bank toward a more restrictive stance after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. Market pricing and economist surveys now assign near-certainty to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, reflecting resilient labor markets, firmer core readings, and staff projections that have shifted upward. This consensus underpins the 98.2% implied probability for a rate increase by year-end. A rapid de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$129,050Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, recently climbing to 3.2% amid energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, has driven the European Central Bank toward a more restrictive stance after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. Market pricing and economist surveys now assign near-certainty to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, reflecting resilient labor markets, firmer core readings, and staff projections that have shifted upward. This consensus underpins the 98.2% implied probability for a rate increase by year-end. A rapid de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$129,050Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation, recently climbing to 3.2% amid energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, has driven the European Central Bank toward a more restrictive stance after holding the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. Market pricing and economist surveys now assign near-certainty to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely at the June meeting, reflecting resilient labor markets, firmer core readings, and staff projections that have shifted upward. This consensus underpins the 98.2% implied probability for a rate increase by year-end. A rapid de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged policy path through December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes