Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have elevated euro-area energy costs, pushing headline inflation above the ECB’s 2% target and supporting firmer core readings amid resilient labor markets. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% following the April 2026 decision, the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and forward guidance have shifted market pricing toward at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, most likely in June. Trader consensus at 98.5% for a 2026 rate increase reflects these second-round inflation risks and economist surveys assigning high probabilities to tightening. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy prices or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged policy path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
Sí
$129,671 Vol.
$129,671 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$129,671 Vol.
$129,671 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have elevated euro-area energy costs, pushing headline inflation above the ECB’s 2% target and supporting firmer core readings amid resilient labor markets. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% following the April 2026 decision, the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and forward guidance have shifted market pricing toward at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, most likely in June. Trader consensus at 98.5% for a 2026 rate increase reflects these second-round inflation risks and economist surveys assigning high probabilities to tightening. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy prices or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$129,671Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have elevated euro-area energy costs, pushing headline inflation above the ECB’s 2% target and supporting firmer core readings amid resilient labor markets. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% following the April 2026 decision, the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and forward guidance have shifted market pricing toward at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, most likely in June. Trader consensus at 98.5% for a 2026 rate increase reflects these second-round inflation risks and economist surveys assigning high probabilities to tightening. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy prices or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$129,671Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have elevated euro-area energy costs, pushing headline inflation above the ECB’s 2% target and supporting firmer core readings amid resilient labor markets. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% following the April 2026 decision, the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and forward guidance have shifted market pricing toward at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, most likely in June. Trader consensus at 98.5% for a 2026 rate increase reflects these second-round inflation risks and economist surveys assigning high probabilities to tightening. A swift conflict de-escalation that sharply reduces energy prices or unexpectedly soft inflation and growth data could still support an unchanged policy path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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