Elevated euro-area inflation driven by energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict has shifted ECB expectations toward tightening. Recent staff projections and Governing Council statements highlight upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts, prompting markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point deposit facility rate hike by mid-year and further moves later. This data-dependent stance, focused on anchoring inflation expectations near the 2% target while monitoring core pressures and transmission, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include faster geopolitical de-escalation, sharper declines in commodity costs, or unexpectedly weak demand that reduces price pressures without additional policy action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
Sí
$130,217 Vol.
$130,217 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$130,217 Vol.
$130,217 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation driven by energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict has shifted ECB expectations toward tightening. Recent staff projections and Governing Council statements highlight upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts, prompting markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point deposit facility rate hike by mid-year and further moves later. This data-dependent stance, focused on anchoring inflation expectations near the 2% target while monitoring core pressures and transmission, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include faster geopolitical de-escalation, sharper declines in commodity costs, or unexpectedly weak demand that reduces price pressures without additional policy action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$130,217Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation driven by energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict has shifted ECB expectations toward tightening. Recent staff projections and Governing Council statements highlight upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts, prompting markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point deposit facility rate hike by mid-year and further moves later. This data-dependent stance, focused on anchoring inflation expectations near the 2% target while monitoring core pressures and transmission, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include faster geopolitical de-escalation, sharper declines in commodity costs, or unexpectedly weak demand that reduces price pressures without additional policy action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$130,217Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation driven by energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict has shifted ECB expectations toward tightening. Recent staff projections and Governing Council statements highlight upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts, prompting markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point deposit facility rate hike by mid-year and further moves later. This data-dependent stance, focused on anchoring inflation expectations near the 2% target while monitoring core pressures and transmission, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include faster geopolitical de-escalation, sharper declines in commodity costs, or unexpectedly weak demand that reduces price pressures without additional policy action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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