Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—driven by a sharp energy price spike—combined with the May employment report’s stronger-than-expected 172,000 job gains and steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already at 3.50%-3.75% following the April hold, market-implied odds reflect broad consensus that policymakers will await clearer evidence of inflation moderation before adjusting policy. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 remains a final data point, though a significant deviation would be required to shift the near-certain hold outcome priced into prediction markets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en junio?
¿Decisión de la Fed en junio?
Sin cambios 99.1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos <1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$66,165,800 Vol.
$66,165,800 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambios
99%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
<1%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambios 99.1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos <1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$66,165,800 Vol.
$66,165,800 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$15,858,028 Vol.
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$11,940,622 Vol.
<1%
Sin cambios
$11,064,013 Vol.
99%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$10,330,516 Vol.
<1%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$16,974,666 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—driven by a sharp energy price spike—combined with the May employment report’s stronger-than-expected 172,000 job gains and steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already at 3.50%-3.75% following the April hold, market-implied odds reflect broad consensus that policymakers will await clearer evidence of inflation moderation before adjusting policy. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 remains a final data point, though a significant deviation would be required to shift the near-certain hold outcome priced into prediction markets.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volumen
$66,165,800Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—driven by a sharp energy price spike—combined with the May employment report’s stronger-than-expected 172,000 job gains and steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already at 3.50%-3.75% following the April hold, market-implied odds reflect broad consensus that policymakers will await clearer evidence of inflation moderation before adjusting policy. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 remains a final data point, though a significant deviation would be required to shift the near-certain hold outcome priced into prediction markets.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$66,165,800Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—driven by a sharp energy price spike—combined with the May employment report’s stronger-than-expected 172,000 job gains and steady 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader expectations for no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate already at 3.50%-3.75% following the April hold, market-implied odds reflect broad consensus that policymakers will await clearer evidence of inflation moderation before adjusting policy. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 remains a final data point, though a significant deviation would be required to shift the near-certain hold outcome priced into prediction markets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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