Persistent high pressure over Texas is sustaining a late-summer heat wave, with southerly flow, clear to partly cloudy skies, and low precipitation chances favoring strong daytime heating in Austin on September 15. NOAA and local forecasts converge on highs near 100°F, supported by heat indices reaching 107–109°F amid elevated humidity, consistent with the market’s leading 100–101°F bin at 47.5% implied probability. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 September 15 average of 91°F while approaching but not exceeding the 102°F record, as model runs show limited variability and minimal cooling influence through the period. Traders are weighting the current pattern’s persistence against the narrow window for any late-day convective cooling.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Austin el 15 de septiembre?
¿La temperatura más alta en Austin el 15 de septiembre?
100-101°F 48%
102-103°F 24%
98-99°F 21%
96-97°F 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 sep 2026
91°F o menos
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
3%
96-97°F
19%
98-99°F
21%
100-101°F
48%
102-103°F
24%
104-105°F
7%
106-107°F
4%
108-109°F
1%
110°F o más
<1%
100-101°F 48%
102-103°F 24%
98-99°F 21%
96-97°F 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 sep 2026
91°F o menos
$180 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$59 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$7 Vol.
3%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
19%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
21%
100-101°F
$214 Vol.
48%
102-103°F
$107 Vol.
24%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
7%
106-107°F
$0 Vol.
4%
108-109°F
$0 Vol.
1%
110°F o más
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure over Texas is sustaining a late-summer heat wave, with southerly flow, clear to partly cloudy skies, and low precipitation chances favoring strong daytime heating in Austin on September 15. NOAA and local forecasts converge on highs near 100°F, supported by heat indices reaching 107–109°F amid elevated humidity, consistent with the market’s leading 100–101°F bin at 47.5% implied probability. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 September 15 average of 91°F while approaching but not exceeding the 102°F record, as model runs show limited variability and minimal cooling influence through the period. Traders are weighting the current pattern’s persistence against the narrow window for any late-day convective cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Volumen
$661Fecha de finalización
15 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure over Texas is sustaining a late-summer heat wave, with southerly flow, clear to partly cloudy skies, and low precipitation chances favoring strong daytime heating in Austin on September 15. NOAA and local forecasts converge on highs near 100°F, supported by heat indices reaching 107–109°F amid elevated humidity, consistent with the market’s leading 100–101°F bin at 47.5% implied probability. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 September 15 average of 91°F while approaching but not exceeding the 102°F record, as model runs show limited variability and minimal cooling influence through the period. Traders are weighting the current pattern’s persistence against the narrow window for any late-day convective cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$661Fecha de finalización
15 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure over Texas is sustaining a late-summer heat wave, with southerly flow, clear to partly cloudy skies, and low precipitation chances favoring strong daytime heating in Austin on September 15. NOAA and local forecasts converge on highs near 100°F, supported by heat indices reaching 107–109°F amid elevated humidity, consistent with the market’s leading 100–101°F bin at 47.5% implied probability. This setup exceeds the 1991–2020 September 15 average of 91°F while approaching but not exceeding the 102°F record, as model runs show limited variability and minimal cooling influence through the period. Traders are weighting the current pattern’s persistence against the narrow window for any late-day convective cooling.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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