Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 50-53°F highs for Chicago on March 28, reflecting the latest NWS forecast of 51-53°F and ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF averaging 51.8°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge over the Midwest. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in modeled southerly winds at 850mb (potentially boosting mixing and peaks near 53°F) versus partial afternoon cirrus cloud cover capping solar insolation at 50-51°F, per recent 00Z runs. Current morning observations show dewpoints in the mid-30s°F supporting mild advection, while lake breeze timing adds minor uncertainty; historical March 28 averages hover near 46°F, underscoring the warm anomaly driving elevated odds in these bins. Watch 12Z updates for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?
52-53°F 24%
50-51°F 23%
48-49°F 17%
54-55°F 17%
43°F or below
6%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
16%
48-49°F
17%
50-51°F
23%
52-53°F
24%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
2%
62°F or higher
1%
52-53°F 24%
50-51°F 23%
48-49°F 17%
54-55°F 17%
43°F or below
6%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
16%
48-49°F
17%
50-51°F
23%
52-53°F
24%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
2%
62°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 50-53°F highs for Chicago on March 28, reflecting the latest NWS forecast of 51-53°F and ensemble model consensus from GFS and ECMWF averaging 51.8°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge over the Midwest. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in modeled southerly winds at 850mb (potentially boosting mixing and peaks near 53°F) versus partial afternoon cirrus cloud cover capping solar insolation at 50-51°F, per recent 00Z runs. Current morning observations show dewpoints in the mid-30s°F supporting mild advection, while lake breeze timing adds minor uncertainty; historical March 28 averages hover near 46°F, underscoring the warm anomaly driving elevated odds in these bins. Watch 12Z updates for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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