Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive trader consensus toward mid-60s highs for Chicago on March 26, with market-implied odds split evenly between 64-65°F and 68-69°F at 15% each, reflecting tight model spread amid southerly winds ushering warm air advection. The National Weather Service official forecast pegs the high near 65°F, but recent 00z runs show slight upward nudges to 67-69°F in some guidance due to reduced cloud cover and enhanced boundary layer mixing. Differentiating factors include timing of a weak frontal passage—earlier clearance favors 68-69°F via more solar insolation, while persistence risks cooler 64-65°F—against a March climatological average high of 47°F, underscoring unusual warmth potential from upper-level ridging.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
64-65°F 15%
68-69°F 15%
66-67°F 14%
72-73°F 11%
$45,523 Vol.
$45,523 Vol.
59°F or below
7%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
15%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
6%
78°F or higher
5%
64-65°F 15%
68-69°F 15%
66-67°F 14%
72-73°F 11%
$45,523 Vol.
$45,523 Vol.
59°F or below
7%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
15%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
6%
78°F or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive trader consensus toward mid-60s highs for Chicago on March 26, with market-implied odds split evenly between 64-65°F and 68-69°F at 15% each, reflecting tight model spread amid southerly winds ushering warm air advection. The National Weather Service official forecast pegs the high near 65°F, but recent 00z runs show slight upward nudges to 67-69°F in some guidance due to reduced cloud cover and enhanced boundary layer mixing. Differentiating factors include timing of a weak frontal passage—earlier clearance favors 68-69°F via more solar insolation, while persistence risks cooler 64-65°F—against a March climatological average high of 47°F, underscoring unusual warmth potential from upper-level ridging.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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