Recent forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office and AccuWeather indicate a peak of 28–30°C for Istanbul on August 6, driven by moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea, limited cloud cover, and typical Bosphorus maritime moderation that curbs extreme heating. Ensemble models show tight clustering around these values with low precipitation risk, though urban heat island effects at official stations could nudge readings slightly higher or lower. Trader positioning favoring 28°C at 51.5% implied probability captures this model consensus and the narrow historical range for early-August maxima near 28–29°C, while limited volume on 30°C+ outcomes reflects low odds of rapid intensification absent a stronger southerly shift. New model runs expected overnight will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 6 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 6 de agosto?
28°C 54%
29°C 24%
27°C 20%
26°C 3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 ago 2026
22°C o menos
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
20%
28°C
54%
29°C
24%
30°C
3%
31°C
<1%
32°C o más
<1%
28°C 54%
29°C 24%
27°C 20%
26°C 3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
6 ago 2026
22°C o menos
$397 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$469 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$188 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$70 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$112 Vol.
3%
27°C
$307 Vol.
20%
28°C
$1,508 Vol.
54%
29°C
$329 Vol.
24%
30°C
$76 Vol.
3%
31°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
32°C o más
$78 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office and AccuWeather indicate a peak of 28–30°C for Istanbul on August 6, driven by moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea, limited cloud cover, and typical Bosphorus maritime moderation that curbs extreme heating. Ensemble models show tight clustering around these values with low precipitation risk, though urban heat island effects at official stations could nudge readings slightly higher or lower. Trader positioning favoring 28°C at 51.5% implied probability captures this model consensus and the narrow historical range for early-August maxima near 28–29°C, while limited volume on 30°C+ outcomes reflects low odds of rapid intensification absent a stronger southerly shift. New model runs expected overnight will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volumen
$3,648Fecha de finalización
6 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office and AccuWeather indicate a peak of 28–30°C for Istanbul on August 6, driven by moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea, limited cloud cover, and typical Bosphorus maritime moderation that curbs extreme heating. Ensemble models show tight clustering around these values with low precipitation risk, though urban heat island effects at official stations could nudge readings slightly higher or lower. Trader positioning favoring 28°C at 51.5% implied probability captures this model consensus and the narrow historical range for early-August maxima near 28–29°C, while limited volume on 30°C+ outcomes reflects low odds of rapid intensification absent a stronger southerly shift. New model runs expected overnight will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,648Fecha de finalización
6 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office and AccuWeather indicate a peak of 28–30°C for Istanbul on August 6, driven by moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea, limited cloud cover, and typical Bosphorus maritime moderation that curbs extreme heating. Ensemble models show tight clustering around these values with low precipitation risk, though urban heat island effects at official stations could nudge readings slightly higher or lower. Trader positioning favoring 28°C at 51.5% implied probability captures this model consensus and the narrow historical range for early-August maxima near 28–29°C, while limited volume on 30°C+ outcomes reflects low odds of rapid intensification absent a stronger southerly shift. New model runs expected overnight will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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