Recent forecasts from sources like the BBC, TimeandDate, and EaseWeather indicate Madrid highs near 32–34°C on August 16, 2026, under mostly sunny conditions with light winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 34°C outcome (42% implied probability) and 35°C (31%), as central Spain remains under a warm air mass following earlier 2026 heatwaves and a summer trend toward above-normal temperatures per AEMET outlooks. Persistent high pressure and limited Atlantic cooling keep values above the long-term August average of ~32°C, while model consensus shows little chance of exceeding 36°C or dropping below 32°C given stable steering patterns. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours from agencies like AEMET could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 16 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 16 de agosto?
34°C 43%
35°C 32%
33°C 10%
36°C 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 ago 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
10%
34°C
43%
35°C
32%
36°C
9%
37°C or higher
3%
34°C 43%
35°C 32%
33°C 10%
36°C 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 ago 2026
27°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$24 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$25 Vol.
3%
33°C
$192 Vol.
10%
34°C
$183 Vol.
43%
35°C
$1,423 Vol.
32%
36°C
$132 Vol.
9%
37°C or higher
$23 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like the BBC, TimeandDate, and EaseWeather indicate Madrid highs near 32–34°C on August 16, 2026, under mostly sunny conditions with light winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 34°C outcome (42% implied probability) and 35°C (31%), as central Spain remains under a warm air mass following earlier 2026 heatwaves and a summer trend toward above-normal temperatures per AEMET outlooks. Persistent high pressure and limited Atlantic cooling keep values above the long-term August average of ~32°C, while model consensus shows little chance of exceeding 36°C or dropping below 32°C given stable steering patterns. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours from agencies like AEMET could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$2,043Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like the BBC, TimeandDate, and EaseWeather indicate Madrid highs near 32–34°C on August 16, 2026, under mostly sunny conditions with light winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 34°C outcome (42% implied probability) and 35°C (31%), as central Spain remains under a warm air mass following earlier 2026 heatwaves and a summer trend toward above-normal temperatures per AEMET outlooks. Persistent high pressure and limited Atlantic cooling keep values above the long-term August average of ~32°C, while model consensus shows little chance of exceeding 36°C or dropping below 32°C given stable steering patterns. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours from agencies like AEMET could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,043Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources like the BBC, TimeandDate, and EaseWeather indicate Madrid highs near 32–34°C on August 16, 2026, under mostly sunny conditions with light winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 34°C outcome (42% implied probability) and 35°C (31%), as central Spain remains under a warm air mass following earlier 2026 heatwaves and a summer trend toward above-normal temperatures per AEMET outlooks. Persistent high pressure and limited Atlantic cooling keep values above the long-term August average of ~32°C, while model consensus shows little chance of exceeding 36°C or dropping below 32°C given stable steering patterns. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours from agencies like AEMET could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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