Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18 (97% implied probability), aligning with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's (SMN) latest extended forecast projecting maxima of 30–35°C in the surrounding Estado de México amid a persistent anticyclonic circulation at mid-atmospheric levels that has sustained a regional heat wave. Recent observations recorded 28°C highs on April 15–16, exceeding April's climatological average of 26–27°C, with minimal cloud cover and solar heating driving the warmth. Model consensus from SMN guidance supports this positioning, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains—scenarios like intensified showers from the approaching Frente Frío 45 or unmodeled cloud development could suppress peaks below 26°C, with updates expected in daily SMN briefings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 18?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 18?
26°C or higher 96.8%
25°C 1.3%
24°C 1.1%
18°C <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 abr 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
97%
26°C or higher 96.8%
25°C 1.3%
24°C 1.1%
18°C <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 abr 2026
16°C or below
$508 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$354 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$403 Vol.
1%
19°C
$477 Vol.
1%
20°C
$546 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,969 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,295 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$421 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,013 Vol.
1%
25°C
$408 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$755 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18 (97% implied probability), aligning with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's (SMN) latest extended forecast projecting maxima of 30–35°C in the surrounding Estado de México amid a persistent anticyclonic circulation at mid-atmospheric levels that has sustained a regional heat wave. Recent observations recorded 28°C highs on April 15–16, exceeding April's climatological average of 26–27°C, with minimal cloud cover and solar heating driving the warmth. Model consensus from SMN guidance supports this positioning, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains—scenarios like intensified showers from the approaching Frente Frío 45 or unmodeled cloud development could suppress peaks below 26°C, with updates expected in daily SMN briefings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 1:53 AM ET
Volumen
$8,149Fecha de finalización
18 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:53 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18 (97% implied probability), aligning with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's (SMN) latest extended forecast projecting maxima of 30–35°C in the surrounding Estado de México amid a persistent anticyclonic circulation at mid-atmospheric levels that has sustained a regional heat wave. Recent observations recorded 28°C highs on April 15–16, exceeding April's climatological average of 26–27°C, with minimal cloud cover and solar heating driving the warmth. Model consensus from SMN guidance supports this positioning, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains—scenarios like intensified showers from the approaching Frente Frío 45 or unmodeled cloud development could suppress peaks below 26°C, with updates expected in daily SMN briefings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$8,149Fecha de finalización
18 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:53 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Mexico City on April 18 (97% implied probability), aligning with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's (SMN) latest extended forecast projecting maxima of 30–35°C in the surrounding Estado de México amid a persistent anticyclonic circulation at mid-atmospheric levels that has sustained a regional heat wave. Recent observations recorded 28°C highs on April 15–16, exceeding April's climatological average of 26–27°C, with minimal cloud cover and solar heating driving the warmth. Model consensus from SMN guidance supports this positioning, though inherent forecast uncertainty remains—scenarios like intensified showers from the approaching Frente Frío 45 or unmodeled cloud development could suppress peaks below 26°C, with updates expected in daily SMN briefings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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