Recent forecast model runs from major centers show a strong high-pressure ridge advecting warm subtropical air into central Europe, positioning Warsaw for a peak daily maximum between 36–38 °C on August 5. Ensemble spreads in the ECMWF and GFS solutions create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around these three outcomes, with smaller probabilities assigned to outliers reflecting residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local urban heat-island amplification. Dry antecedent conditions and light winds favor efficient daytime heating, while any slight westward shift in the ridge axis or increased cloud cover could cap readings near 36 °C. Updated model cycles and official guidance from national meteorological services over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for further price movement ahead of resolution.