Recent meteorological forecasts for Mexico City indicate a daytime maximum near 24–26°C on August 15, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds for 26°C and 27°C. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city’s highland location and ongoing rainy season promote afternoon convective clouds and showers that limit solar heating and cap peak temperatures below seasonal inland norms. Numerical models show broad agreement on moderate humidity, light winds, and scattered precipitation, though small shifts in cloud timing or urban heat retention could push the high toward 25°C or 27°C. Historical August averages hover around 23–24°C, providing context for the narrow distribution traders currently price. Updated model runs and official observations from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional will refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily high measurement.