Trader consensus favors 12°C as Munich's highest temperature on March 22 at 31.5% implied probability, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 11-14°C peaks under a mild Atlantic westerly flow and weak high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Recent 12Z model runs have boosted 12-13°C odds by clarifying reduced cloud cover from a fading shortwave trough, narrowing prior spreads. Differentiating the tight race, 14°C hinges on sustained afternoon insolation and optimal low-level warm advection, while 12°C aligns with baseline boundary-layer mixing; historical March highs average 11°C, underscoring 1-2°C uncertainties from diurnal timing and microscale effects in Alpine föhn influences.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Munich on March 22?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 22?
12°C 30%
13°C 25%
14°C 21%
11°C 13%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
3%
10°C
3%
11°C
13%
12°C
30%
13°C
25%
14°C
21%
15°C
6%
16°C
5%
17°C or higher
1%
12°C 30%
13°C 25%
14°C 21%
11°C 13%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
3%
10°C
3%
11°C
13%
12°C
30%
13°C
25%
14°C
21%
15°C
6%
16°C
5%
17°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 12°C as Munich's highest temperature on March 22 at 31.5% implied probability, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 11-14°C peaks under a mild Atlantic westerly flow and weak high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Recent 12Z model runs have boosted 12-13°C odds by clarifying reduced cloud cover from a fading shortwave trough, narrowing prior spreads. Differentiating the tight race, 14°C hinges on sustained afternoon insolation and optimal low-level warm advection, while 12°C aligns with baseline boundary-layer mixing; historical March highs average 11°C, underscoring 1-2°C uncertainties from diurnal timing and microscale effects in Alpine föhn influences.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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