Latest ECMWF and Météo-France ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a Paris high of 11°C on March 27, with model means clustering around 11.2°C amid a spread of ±1.5°C that keeps 10–12°C odds tightly bunched at over 69% combined. Cool maritime airflow from the Atlantic, reinforced by persistent mid-level cloud cover, caps temperatures below seasonal norms of 12–13°C, while boundary-layer mixing and afternoon insolation introduce uncertainty favoring 11°C over 12°C. Recent 12Z runs slightly cooled projections from prior warmth biases, narrowing the gap but underscoring model divergence typical 2–3 days out. Lower odds for extremes reflect stable synoptic patterns lacking heat advection or clear skies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Paris on March 27?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 27?
11°C 30%
12°C 28%
10°C 20%
13°C 10%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
2%
7°C
2%
8°C
4%
9°C
8%
10°C
20%
11°C
30%
12°C
28%
13°C
10%
14°C
10%
15°C or higher
3%
11°C 30%
12°C 28%
10°C 20%
13°C 10%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
2%
7°C
2%
8°C
4%
9°C
8%
10°C
20%
11°C
30%
12°C
28%
13°C
10%
14°C
10%
15°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and Météo-France ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a Paris high of 11°C on March 27, with model means clustering around 11.2°C amid a spread of ±1.5°C that keeps 10–12°C odds tightly bunched at over 69% combined. Cool maritime airflow from the Atlantic, reinforced by persistent mid-level cloud cover, caps temperatures below seasonal norms of 12–13°C, while boundary-layer mixing and afternoon insolation introduce uncertainty favoring 11°C over 12°C. Recent 12Z runs slightly cooled projections from prior warmth biases, narrowing the gap but underscoring model divergence typical 2–3 days out. Lower odds for extremes reflect stable synoptic patterns lacking heat advection or clear skies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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