Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pinpoint Paris's March 26 high temperature near 10°C, fueling trader consensus with 38.5% odds on 10°C edging out 33.5% for 9°C, as mild Atlantic air masses moderate seasonal norms of 11-12°C. Differentiating factors include subtle jet stream undulations potentially introducing cooler northerly flow for 9°C outcomes or persistent high pressure for 11°C spikes, per Météo-France updates showing 8-12°C spreads. Recent model runs reflect slight cooling from early-week warmth, with cloud cover variability adding uncertainty; historical March 26 data (mean 11°C, std. dev. 3°C) underscores tight clustering, advising traders watch tomorrow's 12Z runs for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Paris on March 26?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 26?
10°C 39%
9°C 34%
11°C 14%
8°C 7%
$20,572 Vol.
$20,572 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
7%
9°C
34%
10°C
39%
11°C
14%
12°C
4%
13°C
2%
14°C or higher
1%
10°C 39%
9°C 34%
11°C 14%
8°C 7%
$20,572 Vol.
$20,572 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
7%
9°C
34%
10°C
39%
11°C
14%
12°C
4%
13°C
2%
14°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pinpoint Paris's March 26 high temperature near 10°C, fueling trader consensus with 38.5% odds on 10°C edging out 33.5% for 9°C, as mild Atlantic air masses moderate seasonal norms of 11-12°C. Differentiating factors include subtle jet stream undulations potentially introducing cooler northerly flow for 9°C outcomes or persistent high pressure for 11°C spikes, per Météo-France updates showing 8-12°C spreads. Recent model runs reflect slight cooling from early-week warmth, with cloud cover variability adding uncertainty; historical March 26 data (mean 11°C, std. dev. 3°C) underscores tight clustering, advising traders watch tomorrow's 12Z runs for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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