Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Toronto high of 3°C or 4°C on March 28, fueled by the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks in that narrow band amid a persistent upper-level trough ushering cool Arctic air southward. Differentiating factors include subtle ensemble spreads—GFS variants hint at slightly milder 4-5°C under partial clearing, while Canadian GEM leans cooler at 1-3°C due to persistent cloud decks suppressing daytime heating. Historical late-March norms average 6°C highs, but this week's cold snap and weak southerly flow limit upside, with low odds on extremes reflecting tight model agreement and minimal Great Lakes moderation. Key watch: 12Z model updates for potential shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Toronto on March 28?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 28?
3°C 32%
4°C 23%
1°C 18%
2°C 15%
-1°C o menos
8%
0°C
10%
1°C
18%
2°C
15%
3°C
24%
4°C
23%
5°C
12%
6°C
11%
7°C
8%
8°C
9%
9°C or higher
2%
3°C 32%
4°C 23%
1°C 18%
2°C 15%
-1°C o menos
8%
0°C
10%
1°C
18%
2°C
15%
3°C
24%
4°C
23%
5°C
12%
6°C
11%
7°C
8%
8°C
9%
9°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Toronto high of 3°C or 4°C on March 28, fueled by the latest Environment Canada and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks in that narrow band amid a persistent upper-level trough ushering cool Arctic air southward. Differentiating factors include subtle ensemble spreads—GFS variants hint at slightly milder 4-5°C under partial clearing, while Canadian GEM leans cooler at 1-3°C due to persistent cloud decks suppressing daytime heating. Historical late-March norms average 6°C highs, but this week's cold snap and weak southerly flow limit upside, with low odds on extremes reflecting tight model agreement and minimal Great Lakes moderation. Key watch: 12Z model updates for potential shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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