Latest ensemble forecasts from Environment Canada and global models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward a Toronto high of 11-13°C on March 26, with 12°C edging ahead at 22% implied probability amid tight clustering. Recent surface observations at Pearson International Airport show a mild southerly flow displacing colder Arctic air, but uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and a potential weak frontal boundary, causing slight model divergences—Canadian GEM cooler at ~11°C, GFS warmer near 13°C. Historical late-March averages hover around 8°C, yet this year's positive temperature anomalies from a weakening La Niña boost mild outcomes, while extremes remain low-odds outliers due to ensemble spreads. Traders eye afternoon updates for resolution clarity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Toronto el 26 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Toronto el 26 de marzo?
12°C 22.2%
11°C 20%
13°C 17%
14°C 12.3%
$18,795 Vol.
$18,795 Vol.
8°C o menos
5%
9°C
4%
10°C
5%
11°C
20%
12°C
22%
13°C
17%
14°C
12%
15°C
6%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C o más
1%
12°C 22.2%
11°C 20%
13°C 17%
14°C 12.3%
$18,795 Vol.
$18,795 Vol.
8°C o menos
5%
9°C
4%
10°C
5%
11°C
20%
12°C
22%
13°C
17%
14°C
12%
15°C
6%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C o más
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from Environment Canada and global models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward a Toronto high of 11-13°C on March 26, with 12°C edging ahead at 22% implied probability amid tight clustering. Recent surface observations at Pearson International Airport show a mild southerly flow displacing colder Arctic air, but uncertainty stems from cloud cover variability and a potential weak frontal boundary, causing slight model divergences—Canadian GEM cooler at ~11°C, GFS warmer near 13°C. Historical late-March averages hover around 8°C, yet this year's positive temperature anomalies from a weakening La Niña boost mild outcomes, while extremes remain low-odds outliers due to ensemble spreads. Traders eye afternoon updates for resolution clarity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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