The Justice Department’s April 2026 decision to close its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over headquarters renovations—after a federal judge found essentially zero evidence of wrongdoing and quashed subpoenas—has anchored the 94.2% market-implied odds against imprisonment before 2027. Prosecutors cited an ongoing inspector-general review instead, with no charges filed despite months of scrutiny tied to cost overruns and Powell’s congressional testimony. With his chair term already concluded and no fresh regulatory or legal actions reported since, trader consensus reflects the absence of credible pathways to indictment in the remaining months of 2026. Still, an unexpected development such as new inspector-general findings or unrelated allegations could theoretically alter the trajectory, though historical precedent for such rapid escalation against a former Fed official remains limited.