**Recent NWS and model guidance points to a Sunday minimum temperature in Houston right around 78–80 °F, keeping the 76–79 °F bins at the top of the order book.** Clear to partly cloudy skies under a persistent subtropical ridge are allowing modest radiational cooling overnight, but elevated dew points in the low-to-mid 70s and the urban heat-island effect cap how far temperatures can fall. Forecast soundings show light southeast winds and minimal cloud cover after midnight, conditions that normally produce the season’s typical upper-70s lows rather than deeper cooling. The tight clustering of probabilities around 76–79 °F reflects both the narrow expected range and the inherent uncertainty in the final hourly minimum: small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, or the exact timing of the low can move the reading one bin either way. Historical climatology (1991–2020 average low of ~75 °F) and the lack of any incoming frontal system or tropical moisture reinforce the current market-implied odds, while the next model runs and updated NWS forecasts remain the key near-term catalysts that could sharpen or shift those probabilities.