Persistent subtropical high pressure and a strong heat dome over the southern Plains have locked in hot, humid conditions across central Texas, with National Weather Service and private forecast models showing overnight lows of 76–77 °F for Austin on August 30. This places the expected minimum well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 71.6 °F and explains why market-implied odds favor the 67 °F-or-below bucket at 46 % while still assigning meaningful probability to the 86 °F-and-higher outcome. Model consensus remains tight with little indication of a passing front or increased cloud cover that could enhance radiational cooling, though forecasters note typical late-summer variability and the possibility of localized dew-point fluctuations. Updated National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs expected through the weekend will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más baja en Austin el 30 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más baja en Austin el 30 de agosto?
86°F o más 59%
67°F o menos 46%
82-83°F 42%
84-85°F 40%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 ago 2026
67°F o menos
46%
68-69°F
25%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
26%
74-75°F
26%
76-77°F
25%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
42%
84-85°F
40%
86°F o más
59%
86°F o más 59%
67°F o menos 46%
82-83°F 42%
84-85°F 40%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 ago 2026
67°F o menos
$0 Vol.
46%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
25%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
25%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
26%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
26%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
25%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
25%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$10 Vol.
42%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
40%
86°F o más
$5 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure and a strong heat dome over the southern Plains have locked in hot, humid conditions across central Texas, with National Weather Service and private forecast models showing overnight lows of 76–77 °F for Austin on August 30. This places the expected minimum well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 71.6 °F and explains why market-implied odds favor the 67 °F-or-below bucket at 46 % while still assigning meaningful probability to the 86 °F-and-higher outcome. Model consensus remains tight with little indication of a passing front or increased cloud cover that could enhance radiational cooling, though forecasters note typical late-summer variability and the possibility of localized dew-point fluctuations. Updated National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs expected through the weekend will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$25Fecha de finalización
30 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure and a strong heat dome over the southern Plains have locked in hot, humid conditions across central Texas, with National Weather Service and private forecast models showing overnight lows of 76–77 °F for Austin on August 30. This places the expected minimum well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 71.6 °F and explains why market-implied odds favor the 67 °F-or-below bucket at 46 % while still assigning meaningful probability to the 86 °F-and-higher outcome. Model consensus remains tight with little indication of a passing front or increased cloud cover that could enhance radiational cooling, though forecasters note typical late-summer variability and the possibility of localized dew-point fluctuations. Updated National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs expected through the weekend will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$25Fecha de finalización
30 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent subtropical high pressure and a strong heat dome over the southern Plains have locked in hot, humid conditions across central Texas, with National Weather Service and private forecast models showing overnight lows of 76–77 °F for Austin on August 30. This places the expected minimum well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 71.6 °F and explains why market-implied odds favor the 67 °F-or-below bucket at 46 % while still assigning meaningful probability to the 86 °F-and-higher outcome. Model consensus remains tight with little indication of a passing front or increased cloud cover that could enhance radiational cooling, though forecasters note typical late-summer variability and the possibility of localized dew-point fluctuations. Updated National Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs expected through the weekend will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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